New Materials Industry Weekly report: rare earth prices hit record highs and lithium prices and cathode materials continue to rise sharply [institutional review]

Last week, the magnetic and panel materials plate showed resistance to fall, while the rest of the plate fell sharply. Sector valuations (price-to-earnings ratio TTM) continue to fall, and despite the recent release of high valuation risk, the valuations of lithium and photovoltaic materials are still higher than the long-term historical median.

Last week, the magnetic and panel material plates were relatively resistant, of which the magnetic plate fell slightly by 0.12%, but still outperformed the benchmark (Shanghai and Shenzhen 300) by 0.94%, while the panel material rebounded slightly by 0.22% and outperformed the benchmark by 0.6%. Carbon fiber, lithium electric materials, photovoltaic materials and semiconductor materials were significantly adjusted, with weekly decreases of 8.13%, 8.8%, 7.64% and 3.22%, respectively, outperforming the benchmark 8.96pct, 9.62pct, 8.46 pct and 4.05 pct, respectively. Last week, the valuation level of magnetic materials, carbon fiber, lithium materials, photovoltaic materials and semiconductor materials (TTM) fell back to 37.2x, 51.8x, 57x, 46.3x and 60x, respectively, while the panel showed that the material valuation level remained at 22.7x. From the historical quantile of valuation level, magnetic materials, carbon fiber and semiconductor materials have been below the long-term median level, entering a reasonable valuation range. Despite the release of valuation risk, the valuation levels of lithium and photovoltaic materials are still above the long-term historical median. Panel material plate valuation is located in the bottom range of long-term valuation.

Praseodymium and neodymium prices rose sharply, driving the industry's average gross margin up significantly. The price of heavy rare earths rose, the spot price of cobalt reached a new high, and the prices of ferroboron, gallium and ferroniobium alloy were stable. The cost support of rare earth raw materials is strong, and the price of sintered NdFeB magnetic materials remains strong.

Praseodymium-neodymium: last week, the national average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide was 102.5 million yuan / ton, up 8.12% from the previous week; the average price of praseodymium-neodymium metal was 126 million yuan / ton, up 8.15% After the Spring Festival, the bullish mood of praseodymium and neodymium is obvious, the spot circulation is tight, the merchants actively rise, seldom sell, the metal factory buys according to the inquiry order on demand, and the trading volume is small. On the supply side, some separated enterprises have normal production during the Spring Festival, and maintenance enterprises have resumed work after the festival, resulting in an increase in production. Last week, the output of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 1316 tons, an increase of 0.92% compared with the previous week. It is expected that as logistics and procurement return to normal, praseodymium and neodymium production may increase, while metal praseodymium and neodymium production will be 1323.5 tons, an increase of 0.53%. During the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises consumed more inventory, and after the holiday, as logistics resumed delivery, inventory continued to decrease. Last week, the inventory of praseodymium-neodymium oxide factory was 3266 tons, down 8.77% from the previous week; and the inventory of praseodymium-neodymium metal factory was 1164 tons, 5.06% lower than the previous week. Due to the shortage of domestic ionic mines, the limited number of Myanmar ore imports, high domestic mineral prices, low scrap and high prices, and the overall high cost of praseodymium-neodymium oxide, but due to a short-term sharp rise in praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices, the average gross profit of praseodymium-neodymium oxide industry rose 81.57% to 1654 million yuan / ton last week, while the average gross margin of praseodymium-neodymium metal industry caused cost pressure due to a relatively large short-term increase in upstream oxide prices It changed from profit to loss to-70,000 yuan / ton before the festival.

Heavy rare earths: prices continued to rise last week, dysprosium oxide market downstream inquiry orders slightly increased, rigid demand, merchant shipments stable, a small number of transactions, the actual transaction price rose slightly, high transaction less. The national average price of dysprosium oxide was 3070 yuan / kg, up 1.32% from the previous week; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 3060 yuan / kg, up 1.66% from the previous week. The spot market of terbium oxide is difficult to find, merchants ship less, there is demand downstream, the quotation is high, the concentration of terbium oxide is high, the merchants cherish to sell, and continue to be optimistic about the future. The national average price of terbium oxide is 14185 yuan / kg, up 4.3% from the previous week; the average price of metal terbium is 17800 yuan / kg, up 5.01% from the previous week. Last week, the average domestic price was 580,000 yuan / ton, up 12.62% from the previous week; and the average domestic price of ferroalloy was 182,000 yuan / ton, up 10.3% from the previous week.

Sintered NdFeB: as of January last week, the average prices of sintered NdFeB with low, medium and high intrinsic coercivity were 251.2 yuan / kg, 281.6 yuan / kg and 308.8 yuan / kg, respectively, up 6.22%, 4.58% and 4.98% compared with the average price in December last year.

At the end of cathode raw materials, some raw materials rose, and the prices of lithium sources and cathode materials continued to rise. Lithium hexafluorophosphate in the electrolyte link is high and stable, DMC drops sharply, and the electrolyte price is high and stable. Anode material, diaphragm and copper foil remain stable

Cathode materials: last week, battery-grade electrolytic cobalt at the end of ternary cathode raw materials rose 1.59% to 510,000 yuan / ton, cobalt sulfate rose 2.83% to 109,000 yuan / ton, and the prices of nickel and manganese sulfates were unchanged. In terms of ternary precursors, NCM523 and NCM622 increased by 4.14% and + 0.71%, respectively. The prices of lithium sources have risen sharply, of which the prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are 392,000 yuan / ton and 3265 million yuan / ton respectively, up 7.69 percent and 9.38 percent respectively from the previous week. The price of cathode materials continued to rise sharply, with the prices of NCM111, NCM523, NCM622 and lithium iron phosphate rising 8.99%, 9.49%, 9.56% and 7.63%, respectively.

Electrolyte: lithium hexafluorophosphate remained high and stable last week. The average ex-factory price of DMC domestic manufacturers dropped sharply, falling 15.89% to 9000 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. The week-to-month ratio of all kinds of electrolyte prices are flat, keeping high and stable.

Negative materials: the prices of domestic mid-end man-made and natural graphite are 515,000 yuan / ton and 385,000 yuan / ton respectively, which are the same as the week-to-month ratio.

Diaphragm: last week, the domestic mainstream product price of wet coating diaphragm was maintained at 1.88-3.87 yuan / square meter.

Battery-grade copper foil: the price was 107 yuan / kg last week. The mainstream large factories are currently full of pending orders, and the downstream accepts the current price well. On the supply side, despite the release of new capacity, the short-term supply falls short of demand. Copper foil enterprises in the short term subject to the sharp rise in copper prices of raw materials, it is difficult to increase processing fees, waiting for the opportunity to adjust after March.

The price of DRAM downstream of semiconductor materials fell, and the price of flash memory continued to rise. Last week, the semiconductor industry index in Taiwan and Philadelphia rose 2.8 per cent and 1.87 per cent respectively. In terms of DRAM, the price of downstream DDR3 4Gb (1600MHz) fell 0.21% on a weekly basis. NAND Flash 64Gb and 32Gb prices rose 0.15% and 0.24%, respectively, from the previous week.

Investment suggestion

It is suggested that we should continue to pay attention to the opportunities of rare earth permanent magnet plates that are expected to be significantly increased by policy-driven demand growth and whose valuation has entered a reasonable historical range, as well as the release of short-term high valuation risk, the pull of the demand for carbon-carbon matrix composites under the long-term growth prospect of photovoltaic installations, the increase in market capacity brought about by the demand for lithium-ion materials in the long-term development space of electric vehicles, and the long-term trend of localization of integrated circuits. Progress and opportunities of localization of semiconductor materials.

Risk hint

Price decline risk, prosperity change risk, policy change risk.