Photovoltaic industry weekly report: the rush to install at the end of the year is hot, and the supply of silicon is expected to be loosened [agency review]

Market price

Overall: this week, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose or fell 0.39%, 25 of the 31 industries rose, and the power equipment industry rose or fell 3.40%, ranking seventh in Shenwan's first-tier industry.

Individual stocks: 43 stocks in the photovoltaic industry achieved positive earnings, of which the first Hi-Tech led the rise by 52.37%, and Jinkaixineng led the decline by-14.50%.

Valuation: as of January 2, 2021, the PE (TTM) of the photovoltaic industry is 54.40, and the price-to-earnings ratio of the electrical equipment industry (in case) is 55.35.

Price tracking

The price of the industrial chain has fallen steadily this week:

The price of single crystal silicon material decreased;

The price of monocrystalline silicon wafer remains stable, while the price of polycrystalline silicon wafer increases.

The price of single crystal battery is stable, and the price of polycrystal battery is stable.

The price of the component fell.

Industry trends

SASAC: the proportion of renewable energy installed in central enterprises will reach more than 50% by 2025.

Shandong publishes the pilot scheme of distributed roof of the whole county.

Inner Mongolia: the new type of energy storage will be installed above 5GW by 2025.

Investment suggestion

Silicon prices have maintained a downward trend this week, but the decline has narrowed somewhat. According to the statistics of the Silicon Industry Association, the total domestic polysilicon output in 2021 is about 490000 tons, + 23.7% compared with the same period last year. Polysilicon imports are expected to be 116000 tons, and the total domestic polysilicon supply for the whole year is about 606000 tons. According to the production planning statistics of various enterprises, the annual silicon production in 2022 is expected to reach 800000 tons, which can support about 230GW installation, and the shortage of silicon is expected to be alleviated. According to the incomplete statistics of Zhihui photovoltaic, the installed capacity of domestic surface power stations exceeds 15GW from December 1 to 30, 2021, and the rush installation enthusiasm at the end of the year is still strong. In addition, 34.83GW was installed in November before, and the annual installed capacity may exceed 50GW, which is in line with our expectations. Long-term optimistic about vertically integrated components and leading inverter enterprises with leading layout in the field of energy storage: Longji shares, Jing'ao Technology, Sunshine Power supply, Jinlang Technology.

Risk hint

The consumption of new energy is not as expected; the new installed capacity is not as expected; the risk of price fluctuation in the industrial chain; and the landing of the 14th five-year new energy plan is not as expected.