Traditional phosphorus chemical giants compete for the "big cake" of lithium iron phosphate

Phosphorus chemical giants are speeding up the layout of lithium iron phosphate. On December 22, Chuanjinnuo announced that it plans to invest 150000 tons / year of battery-grade lithium iron phosphate cathode material precursor iron phosphate and supporting 600000 tons / year sulfur sulphuric acid production project in Guangxi, with a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan; in addition, the total investment of 100000 tons / year battery-grade lithium iron phosphate cathode material project is expected to be 2.4 billion yuan.

It is understood that Chuanjinnuo, as a phosphorus chemical enterprise, has many years of technical accumulation in the phosphate rock, phosphoric acid and purification phosphoric acid industry chain. The company's holding subsidiary Guangxi Chuanjinnuo 100000 tons / year purified phosphoric acid will be put into production at the beginning of 2022. Purified phosphoric acid can be used as the raw material for the preparation of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate, so that the company has a great advantage in the production of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate.

A week ago, Tianyuan shares, a phosphorus chemical enterprise in Yibin, Sichuan, also announced that it planned to set up a new company to invest in the construction of lithium ferrite integration project, with a total investment of 2.389 billion yuan. among them, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate cathode material project is 100000 tons / year, and that of iron phosphate precursor project is 100000 tons / year.

In addition to Chuanjinnuo and Tianyuan shares, since the beginning of this year, there are a large number of traditional phosphorus chemical enterprises, such as Longbai Group, Xinyangfeng, Yuntianhua, Hubei Yihua, Yuntu Holdings, Fulin Seiko, Chuanfa Dragon Python, Xingfa Group, Chuanheng shares and so on.

Lithium iron phosphate battery is very hot

Because of its advantages in cost and safety, lithium iron phosphate battery is becoming more and more popular among automobile companies. Tesla's Triple Quarterly report in 2021 shows that the standard mileage versions of Model3 and ModelY, produced by the Shanghai factory will use lithium iron phosphate batteries instead of ternary lithium batteries and will be sold worldwide. In addition, some overseas car companies, such as Volkswagen and Daimler, have also begun bidding for lithium iron phosphate models, while Ford, Hyundai, Renault and other car companies have indicated that they may further expand the scope of use of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Driven by the increase in sales of downstream models, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is also rising sharply. According to data from the Power Battery Application Branch, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate in China reached 10.25GWhin October, an increase of 324.7% over the same period last year, while the installed capacity of ternary units was 7.59GWh, an increase of only 59.7% over the same period last year. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have surpassed ternary batteries for several months since the reverse excess of installed capacity was achieved in July.

Caixin Securities estimates that as many car companies represented by Tesla choose lithium iron phosphate batteries for matching, it is estimated that lithium iron phosphate will account for 60% of China's installed capacity in 2025, while overseas will also reach 20%. It is estimated that the medium-and long-term permeability of lithium iron phosphate worldwide is expected to reach 35%. It can be predicted that lithium iron phosphate battery, which has the advantages of cost, stability and safety, will be favored by all parties for a long time.

Wood Mackenzie, an international market research agency, reports that the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries is increasing rapidly and is expected to exceed 30 per cent by 2030. Cost and safety will continue to be the first considerations for battery suppliers in a variety of battery application scenarios. It can be predicted that the sphere of influence of lithium iron phosphate will expand rapidly in the future.

Cost advantage of phosphorus chemical enterprises

With the substantial increase in demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries downstream and expected to rise, the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials has continued to soar this year, and the average price of power lithium iron phosphate has risen from 39000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to about 97000 yuan / ton recently, an increase of more than 130%. At present, the lithium hydroxide price of high nickel ternary battery raw materials has been surpassed by lithium carbonate, the raw material of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

"the prices of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate products are high, which promotes the relevant enterprises to expand production actively and rapidly. At present, iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate are in short supply, and prices are expected to remain high. With the incremental release of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate expanded at the end of next year or the beginning of next year, their prices may fall. " Industry insiders said.

It is under this background that traditional phosphorus chemical enterprises have cut into the new energy track one after another. From the point of view of the preparation process, lithium iron phosphate is mainly composed of lithium carbonate and iron phosphate. On the other hand, phosphorus chemical enterprises have resource advantages in the production chain of "phosphate rock-high purity phosphoric acid / industrial monoammonium phosphate-ferric phosphate".

According to the research report of China Post Securities, the main raw materials used to prepare iron phosphate are phosphorus source and iron source, which account for 33% and 15% of the production cost of iron phosphate, respectively. Phosphorus chemical enterprises with industrial monoammonium phosphate and phosphoric acid purification capacity, on the one hand, have the advantage of raw material cost, on the other hand, they can provide raw material guarantee for the large-scale development of iron phosphate, so they actively enter the field of iron phosphate. It is expected to occupy a large share of the iron phosphate market in the future.

According to the research and calculation of the institutions in the industry, the cost of iron phosphate factory without raw material advantage is 12600 yuan / ton, that of iron source advantage is 11800 yuan / ton, that of phosphorus source advantage is 11000 yuan / ton, and that of both resources is 10200 yuan / ton.

Under the general trend of carbon neutralization, according to the agency's forecast, the demand for lithium iron phosphate will exceed 2 million tons in the next five to ten years, with a corresponding increase of more than 4 million tons of phosphate rock demand, and a trillion-class market space will be formed, which will more than double the scale of the phosphorus chemical industry.

East Asia Qianhai Securities said that the traditional phosphorus chemical industry is a cyclical industry, the degree of prosperity has a certain periodicity. The valuation of the new energy material track is high. After the traditional phosphorus chemical enterprises cut into the new energy material track, it can not only increase the profitability of enterprises, but also improve the valuation level, so as to prolong the prosperity time of the phosphorus chemical industry.