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The price of lithium, the basic material for electric car batteries, set a new record this year, adding to concerns that there is not enough metal to get rid of internal combustion engines. Under such circumstances, now should be the best time to build a mine.
Rio Tinto found that this was not the case. Within months of the announcement of a $2.4 billion mine plan in western Serbia, local opponents organized a campaign that rocked the government and brought the city to a standstill, with thousands of protesters marching on the streets. The authorities subsequently suspended land-use plans for the proposed mine, although they did not completely reject the project.
"the whole Jadar project is just another way for multinationals to profit and harm the Serbian people with the help of our country," said Slavisa Miletic, an activist who lives near the planned mine.
Opposition to Rio is being replicated around the world and industry executives see it as their biggest challenge in the future. Southern Copper is trying to win government support for a controversial $1.4 billion project in Peru, while American Lithium has been taken to federal court in the United States for its planned mine in Nevada.
Historically, the mining industry has provided jobs and economic development for typical poor areas, and taxes and royalties have filled government coffers. But many times, people living nearby pay the price for environmental degradation and occasional disasters.
That's changing. Locals are fighting back, believing that the economic benefits will not outweigh the cost of their quality of life. The government is also increasingly unwilling or unable to dispel these concerns.
"it is more difficult than ever to build mines," said Ben Davis, a mining analyst at Liberum. "it is much easier to organize the opposition, usually in rural and remote communities."
To appease critics, the Serbian government held a referendum on the mine, which itself caused controversy, with the opposition saying recent legal amendments skewed the balance between the government and Rio Tinto.
The protesters also attacked efforts to accelerate the change of ownership of state-owned and private projects. Anger forced President Alexander Vucic to send the bill back to parliament for amendment.
"Serbia has long ignored environmental issues because the economy and living standards have been dominant for many years," said Boyan Krakar (Bojan Klacar), director of the (CESID) of the Center for Free elections and Democracy in Belgrade. "the priorities have changed."
Thousands of Serbs held a fourth weekend of protests in several cities, demanding an unconditional ban on lithium exploration and mining by any company, not just Rio Tinto. At the largest gathering in the capital, Belgrade, activists vowed to step up protests if their demands were not met next month.
When Rio Tinto, the world's second-largest miner, announced the project in July, it seemed like a dunk to Jacob Stausholm, the new chief executive.
Lithium is a future-oriented commodity that is essential for global decarbonization. The biggest carmakers, from Tesla to Volkswagen to Toyota, need a growing supply of battery materials to accelerate the launch of electric vehicles.
The global lithium price index has more than tripled this year, and BNEF predicts that lithium-ion battery prices will rise next year for the first time since 2010.
In addition, the mine will be built on farmland rather than on primeval forests, just a 10-hour drive from the German car manufacturing centre. Rio Tinto said the project, which could create more than 2000 jobs, is scheduled to start in 2026 and go into full production in 2029.
However, the so-called list of benefits is not important to many people. The dark past of the mining industry has included a large number of fatal disasters, from cyanide leaks to dam collapses.
Just last year, Rio's chief executive was forced to step down after the company destroyed an ancient aboriginal site in Juukan Gorge, Australia.
"We do have a history of things in our organization that we are not proud of, and Juukan tops the list," said Sinead Kaufman, head of the Rio unit, which plans to build mines in Serbia.
It's not just lithium that's the problem. Antofagasta Plc, the Chilean mining company, said copper was an essential metal for the energy transition and that demand was expected to grow by nearly 50 per cent over the next decade. It usually takes about 15 years for a mine to go from discovery to production.
Even so, many of the best prospects remain uncertain. Rio's proposed Arizona copper mine, which can meet 1/4 of u.s. demand, is under federal scrutiny under opposition from the San Carlos Apache tribe. The tribe's leaders refused to meet Rio Tinto's chief executive earlier this year.
Mark Cutifani, chief executive of Anglo American (Anglo American Plc), said in a speech in London this month: "although the mining industry has contributed to almost every aspect of modern life, people still believe that the industry takes more than it gives.
Rio's challenge now is to convince Serbs that the Jadar mine will not be like it used to be. The company said it would build to the highest standards and that almost all water would be reused and electric trucks would be used.
"A mine that will be built in the 2020s and will exist for decades will be very different from the mine built 50 or even 20 years ago," said Kaufman of Rio Tinto. That's the message we need to convey. "
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