SMM survey: what kind of metal do you like most in 2022?
The shortage of wafer foundry mature process has been going on for a long time, but it is still not alleviated today. A few days ago, a number of fabs specializing in mature processes expect that demand and performance will continue to improve next year.
UMC, the world's second-largest company, estimates that next year's capacity will continue to be full, and the overall capacity will increase by about 6% over this year. Long-term customers will also continue to increase, new production capacity can be guaranteed by long-term contracts, and rising prices will also drive gross profit to continue to rise. In addition, due to the strong growth in demand for related chips driven by downstream applications such as 5G, electric vehicles and the Internet of things, the company's performance growth next year is expected to exceed the industry's average output growth rate of 12%.
Similarly, SMIC has similarly optimistic expectations for its own growth. The company estimates that the industry will grow at a "low ten-digit" level next year, while the company will grow higher than the industry average next year, and capacity growth will also exceed that of this year. In addition, the company is "almost the only one in the industry that continues to expand 8 inches according to customer requirements."
Advanced countries in the world have revealed that demand is strong in the first half of next year, not weakening. 8-inch production capacity continues to be in short supply, and the company is expected to take this as the main direction of production expansion in the future.
LSMC, on the other hand, gave specific order visibility, pointing out that some logic chip customers had signed a three-year contract until 2024.
Equipment becomes the "worry" of expanding production in the industrial chain.
The gap between supply and demand is ahead, so expanding production has naturally become the first choice for wafer factories. However, manufacturing equipment has become a big constraint.
UMC announced yesterday that the board of directors has approved the implementation of the capital budget and plans to invest 76.273 billion New Taiwan dollars (17.5 billion yuan) to meet the demand for capacity expansion.
The company said that at present, the delivery time of 28/14nm process equipment is extended, and the more sophisticated the equipment is, the longer the delivery time of the equipment with fewer suppliers is, which can be as long as 30 months. Therefore, the company's expenditure of RMB 17.5 billion is intended to "start first" and snap up the equipment needed for production 2-3 years later.
SMIC also revealed in a survey last month that due to the approval time of permits, supplier delivery, the impact of the epidemic on logistics and other factors, the arrival time of equipment at the factory has been delayed. Q4 will further speed up the implementation of capital expenditure, optimize procurement, logistics and equipment installation, and strive to expand production next year as scheduled.
In addition, from January to October local mainstream manufacturers monthly bidding scale, SMIC Shaoxing, Changjiang Storage, BYD Semiconductor equipment bidding volume increased significantly from September to October. Global shipments by North American semiconductor equipment manufacturers also reached an all-time high in October.
And the manufacturer's production expansion plan, the long contract of downstream customers, is also expected to add a guarantee for the future growth of the equipment link. CICC expects the mainland wafer manufacturing market to grow at a compound rate of more than 15% from 2020 to 2025, and the market size is expected to reach US $48 billion in 2025. Citic Securities pointed out that mainland manufacturers will become the main force of production expansion next year, and the launch of a number of new plant projects can continue to boost equipment market demand.
