Petroleum Coke Market and Short-Term Forecast

SHANGHAI, Nov 5 (SMM) - For the petroleum coke, the prices of the local refinery this week did not rise with the increase of 440 yuan/mt in the benchmark prices of prebaked anode, but remained stable.

On the supply side, WTI December crude oil futures fell from $84.05/bbl to $78.81/bbl as of today, and Brent January crude oil futures fell from $84.71/bbl to $80.54/bbl. The inventory at each refinery remained at a low level. However, due to the rebound of the domestic pandemic and the downstream on-demand purchasing has slightly curbed the transportation and shipment.

On the demand side, the total output of pre-baked anodes in China was about 1.732 million mt in October (31 days), a decrease of 1.3% from the previous month. Among them, the output of commercial anodes was 831,000 mt, and the output of supporting pre-baked anodes was about 901,000 mt. The industry average operating rate recorded 73.8% in October, a decrease of about 1.2% month-on-month. The power rationing and output cuts continued at aluminium plants.

Rizhao port's current inventory is less than 500,000 mt, and the newly arrived coke at the port is about 155,000-210,000 mt. The prices of the shipments arrivals fell slightly. And the daily shipments from ports reache about 10,000 mt.

SMM analysis believes that the decline in crude oil prices has depressed refinery production. The heating season in north China and the impact of the Winter Olympics Games are likely to lead to more severe production restrictions at the downstream non-ferrous metal and carbon industries. Therefore, it is expected that the prices of local refineries will maintain a steady downward trend.