Meteorologists predict that with the advent of La Nina, the northern hemisphere may be colder than ever this winter. This means that the global energy crisis may not be alleviated in the short term.
According to the latest news from the China Meteorological Administration on the 22nd, the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Middle East and Pacific Ocean has continued to decline since July this year and is expected to enter La Nina in October and form a La Nina event of below moderate intensity in winter. In view of the fact that La Nina occurred in autumn and winter from 2020 to 2021, 2021 will be the "double La Nina year".
Generally speaking, the frequency of cold winter in the northern hemisphere increases in the winter affected by La Nina. Coal and natural gas prices have soared against the backdrop of the global energy crisis, which could further push up energy prices if a colder-than-usual winter in the northern hemisphere means higher demand for heating.
Renny Vandewege, vice president of weather operations at data provider DTN, said temperatures in Northeast Asia were expected to be below normal this winter, and weather forecasts were critical to predicting how much energy reserves would be needed.
Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford (Todd Crawford) said that in addition to La Nina, there are other factors that may affect the winter weather in the region. He said climate change could lead to a reduction in sea ice in the Arctic Kara Sea, leading to the formation of high-pressure ridges in the region, which could lead to a drop in temperatures in the lower reaches of Northeast Asia.
In addition, Crawford also mentioned that there are signs that the wind speed of the polar vortex (polar vortex), a large cold vortex system in the polar upper air, may be weaker than normal at the beginning of this winter, which will cause the cold air to spread southward.
Winter prospects for some countries in Northeast Asia:
China
According to the National Climate Center, temperatures dropped sharply in most parts of eastern China earlier this week, and temperatures in some northern regions are already lower than usual. Among them, the winter heating season in Heilongjiang, Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces is 4 to 13 days earlier than in previous years.
According to reports, in order to further strengthen the linkage supervision of the spot market during the coal period, bring the excessively high coal price down to a reasonable level as soon as possible, and let the coal market return to rationality, recently, on the basis of organizing local governments to conduct cost investigations on coal production and circulation enterprises, the Price Department of China Development and Reform Commission, together with the price and cost investigation center, formed a number of investigation teams to conduct field investigations on key coal production enterprises and circulation enterprises in relevant provinces. The purpose of this paper is to provide a basis for determining the reasonable range of coal prices and preventing coal enterprises from making exorbitant profits.
Japan
Temperatures in Japan are likely to be lower than normal next month, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. The agency had previously predicted a 60 per cent chance of La Nina this autumn and winter.
It is understood that Japan is relatively unaffected by the energy crisis and has been vigilant since last year's severe cold caused wholesale electricity prices to soar. Japan's main power suppliers currently hold about 24 per cent more LNG stocks than the four-year average.
Korea
The Korean Meteorological Agency said the weather will be colder in the first half of this year and is likely to be affected by La Nina. In October, the weather was so cold that Snow Warning was 15 days earlier than last year.
The Government has taken measures to strengthen fuel supply and mitigate the impact of rising fuel prices. South Korea's deputy finance minister, Lee Eog-weon, said on Friday that he would temporarily cut taxes on fuel and import duties on liquefied natural gas.
India
Before temperatures pick up, temperatures in some parts of northern India are expected to drop to 3 degrees Celsius in January and February next year. However, unlike other countries, cooler temperatures generally lead to lower demand for energy consumption as demand for air conditioners falls.
Floods in India's main coal mining areas in recent months have strained the country's coal supply, which accounts for about 70% of India's electricity.
Marco Dunand (Marco Dunand), chief executive of Mercuria (Mercuria), one of the world's five largest oil traders, said not long ago that oil prices are expected to run in the range of $80-90 a barrel this winter, but it is "possible" to reach $100 a barrel.
