September 16, the sharp contradiction between supply and demand mismatch of upstream lithium resources has been the focus of the market in the process of rapid volume release of new energy vehicles.
This week, a spark from the southern hemisphere set off a sharp chain reaction in the market.
Pilbara, a leading Australian lithium mining company, held its second spodumene concentrate auction on the BMX electronic platform on Sept. 14, with a final price of US $2240 per tonne, exceeding the market's previous expectations of US $1600-1800 per tonne. In the first auction of Pilbara at the end of July this year, the auction price was still US $1250 per tonne, while the price of the lithium concentrate at AsiaNet was only US $740 per tonne at that time.
According to Haitong Securities, according to the final price of this auction, considering the sea freight and the reasonable profit of the lithium salt factory, the corresponding lithium price will exceed 200000 yuan. And 200000 yuan, has exceeded the peak of the last round of lithium salt cycle.
The consumers of the whole car at the terminal ask: who will pay for such a sky-high price?
Institutional analysts said that, first of all, the Pilbara auction is part of the bulk lithium concentrate outside the Changxie order, the auction quantity is only 8000 tons (equivalent to 1000 tons of lithium carbonate), so the long-term significance of LCE), is greater than the real price; secondly, most leading manufacturers still sign long orders with the upstream to buy raw materials by locking price fluctuations, and small factories or speculative funds that lack ore can cause great disturbance to the auction price. Its real impact is that it may become the trigger for the price of lithium concentrate and lithium salt to rise to a new level.
In addition, another objective fact has been re-emphasized by analysts: due to the low lithium price in the past two years and the scarcity of resource-side capital expenditure, there is a shortage of resource-side production projects in 2021-2022. There was almost no incremental capacity on the market during the year.
The soaring price of upstream raw materials has forced mid-stream lithium power manufacturers and downstream car companies to enter the upstream or sign long-term agreements with companies holding lithium mines, and leading enterprises are no exception. Just yesterday, the leading lithium battery manufacturer Ningde era was exposed to bid for 1.9 billion yuan for Canadian lithium company Millennial. "Lithium goes all over the world" has gradually become the consensus of the market, and lithium mining concept stocks have been in the limelight for a while since the second quarter.
Pilbara second auction the next day (September 15), lithium concentrate, lithium salt, electrolyte prices accelerated, A-share lithium concept stocks rose. Considering reasonable profits, the market has raised the price of lithium carbonate one after another and will exceed 200000 yuan / ton this year. However, the price of lithium concentrate is upside down from the price of lithium carbonate.
In a market where contradictions have been further intensified, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said in a video speech at the third World New Energy vehicle Congress held in Haikou this morning that the cost of new energy vehicles in China is still on the high side. In addition, the key components of electric vehicles power batteries are facing lithium, cobalt, nickel and other mineral resources security and price rising pressure, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will work with relevant departments to speed up the overall planning and improve the guarantee capacity.
In the afternoon, lithium batteries and non-ferrous metals cobalt and nickel, photovoltaic, energy storage, and even lithium downstream vehicle plate collective dive. As of the close, Ningde era fell 5%, BYD fell 3%, 100 billion "lithium mining duo" Ganfeng lithium industry and Tianqi lithium industry are both down the limit.
As for today's limit, the person in charge of Ganfeng lithium industry responded to the media that the price of its main products rose to 150000 yuan / ton from 30, 000 yuan / ton in June last year, which is still in short supply, and the fundamentals have not changed much.
Lithium ore in the market is still extremely scarce. Since late July, the weekly price of lithium salt has increased by 2-3, 000 yuan / ton, to the basic weekly increase of 5, 000-10, 000 yuan / ton in August, and then accelerated in the last three weeks, basically at more than 15000 yuan / ton, and has exceeded 50, 000 yuan so far. Guotai Junan Nonferrous said that at this rate, it is expected to reach the peak of the 2016 / 2017 cycle by the end of September.
It will be known within this month whether lithium salt can rise beyond the sky in the future.
The money that makes a profit and leaves the market is in a hurry. Today, a large number of main funds fled the new energy lithium plate, net sales of the top targets are the "Ning Index" leader. Salt Lake Lithium extraction "Niu share" Salt Lake shares, soon after returning from a high profile, were net sold by the main funds today by 2.2 billion.
While selling lithium shares, funds poured back into big consumption, including Guizhou Moutai, Eye Ophthalmology, Muyuan shares and other early unilateral downside, which have been adjusted to low share prices in recent years.
