[SMM Metal Morning ginseng]

SMM Morning Review

Summary of SMM cobalt lithium morning meeting: in terms of cobalt raw materials, imports of cobalt raw materials totaled 7700 metal tons in June, an increase of 6% compared with the previous quarter. In the third quarter, considering the port and railway outages caused by the riots in South Africa, and the notification of lucky delay of cobalt raw materials received by domestic enterprises, the expected shipping delay ranges from 1 to 2 weeks, which is expected.

Ningde Times officially announced on the 29th that there are more lithium salt stocks in sodium ion battery materials enterprises.

Summary of SMM Steel Morning meeting: iron ore: some steel mills are mainly purchased on demand, and some merchants have stabilized prices in the video disk, and they are more enthusiastic about shipping yesterday. Coke: the recent production reduction of coke enterprises tends to be more stringent, and the environmental protection inspection and steel coke production limit policy in Shandong continue to affect the output release of coke enterprises. Thread: yesterday, the snail rose high and fell back. Spot prices more than stopped falling and stabilized. Hot rolls: on the news, following the previous cancellation of export tax rebates, China is considering imposing export tariffs on some steel products, which may involve steel products such as hot rolls.

Steel prices will usher in shock consolidation

The market closed overnight.

In terms of US dollars,

Us stocks

In terms of crude oil,

In terms of precious metals,

The weak Prev index closed down 0.58%, the gem index rose 1.61%, about 3400 stocks in the two cities fell, and the turnover exceeded trillion yuan for the sixth trading day in a row. In the early days, the mainline high-prosperity track stocks continued to withdraw, military industry, BIPV, salt lake lithium extraction, chips and other large declines, sodium ion battery performance was strong, triplets and assisted reproductive concept stocks were active throughout the day, afternoon antiviral concept changes, Bohui Innovation, Da'an Keyin and other novel coronavirus testing stocks rose by the daily limit, mask concept stocks rose across the board, Xinlong Holdings pulled up the sealing board, Yanjiang shares rose more than 10% Kangxinuo AH shares both rose 10%. Liquor stocks rebounded towards the end of the day, Yingjia Gong Liquor rose by the limit, and Guizhou Moutai rose more than 3%. On the disk, the sodium ion battery, novel coronavirus testing and the concept of three births were among the top gainers, while the Hongmeng concept, national defense and military industry, and genetically modified genes were in the forefront of declines. As of the close, the Prev index fell 0.58% to close at 3361 points; the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.05% to close at 14086 points; and the gem index rose 1.61% to close at 3284 points.

LME inventory

Macro focus

[the initial US merchandise trade deficit widened to more than expected by 91.2 billion US dollars in June] the US Commerce Department announced that the initial merchandise trade deficit widened to 91.2 billion US dollars in June from 88.2 billion US dollars the previous month. Imports rose 1.5 per cent to $236.666 billion in June from $233.13 billion in May, while exports rose 0.3 per cent to $145.459 billion in June from $144.969 billion in May.

[China Merchants Bank calls for the suspension of personal foreign exchange options and precious metals business commercial banks may completely cancel personal trading business] news on July 28, yesterday, China Merchants Bank issued five announcements on its official website, such as "notice on the adjustment of personal foreign exchange options business", announcing that personal foreign exchange options business will stop selling new products from now on, and the trading and maturity settlement of sold products will not be affected. According to people in the banking industry, China Merchants Bank adjusted a number of personal precious metals business and suspended personal foreign exchange options business, mainly due to the business adjustment of the bank itself following the crude oil treasure incident. In addition, not only China Merchants Bank, many banks are withdrawing accounts of foreign exchange and gold products, this signal can be understood that commercial banks will not open trading business to individuals in the future, trading customers can go to futures companies for foreign exchange trading. As the high risk of precious metals and foreign exchange markets may lead to retail losses, it deviates from the role of banks.

[national General Administration of Flood Control: extreme heavy precipitation events are expected to occur in some areas in mid-late August] the State New Office held a press conference on flood control and disaster relief work. At the meeting, Zhou Xuewen, secretary general of the State Flood Control and drought Relief headquarters, vice minister of the Emergency Management Department and vice minister of the Ministry of Water Resources, said that at present, it is during the critical period of "seven under eight" flood control, and it is expected that by the end of August, the overall climate situation in our country will deviate, and there will be a rain belt in the north and south. The northern rain belt is mainly located in most of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, east-central Inner Mongolia, western Heilongjiang, western Jilin and western Liaoning. There is a possibility of extremely heavy precipitation events in the above areas in mid-late August. Large floods may occur in some river basins, and in the later stage, a number of typhoons may make landfall in China, and may go northward.

[national standing Committee: further reforming and improving the Management of Central Financial funds for Scientific Research] on 28 July, Li Keqiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council to make arrangements for further reforming and improving the management of central financial funds for scientific research, so as to give researchers greater autonomy in the management of funds. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to thoroughly implement the new development concept in accordance with the arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the core position of innovation in the overall situation of China's modernization drive, and vigorously break the regulations on the management of funds that do not conform to the laws of scientific research in view of the outstanding concerns of scientific research personnel. better encourage researchers to study hard. The meeting decided on measures to further reform and improve the management of central financial funds for scientific research. The first is to simplify the preparation of the budget, reducing the number of budget items from more than nine to three. The second is to increase the incentive for scientific research personnel. The third is to speed up the progress of project funds allocation. The fourth is to innovate the way of financial support for scientific research. Fifth, scientific research projects are equipped with scientific research financial assistants to provide professional services such as budgeting and reimbursement, so as to reduce the routine burden of scientific research personnel. Sixth, improve the supervision of scientific research funds.

The National Health Commission announced on the 28th that between 00: 00 and 24:00 on the 27th, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps reported 86 new confirmed cases, including 31 imported cases and 55 local cases (48 in Jiangsu, 3 in Sichuan, 2 in Liaoning and 2 in Yunnan). There were 18 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 17 imported from abroad and 1 local (in Jiangsu).

[national Health Commission: a total of 1.583361 billion doses of novel coronavirus vaccine were reported nationwide] according to the State Health Commission, as of July 27, 2021, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps reported a total of 1.583361 billion doses of novel coronavirus vaccine.

Today's focus

[SMM analysis: there are great differences in the rising water of electrolytic copper in different places.] since mid-late July, the trend of rising discounts in Guangdong and Shanghai has been different, and the price gap has widened rapidly. According to our SMM quotation system, as of today, Pingshui copper in Guangdong is 20 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper in East China is 240 yuan / ton, the price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai is 220 yuan / ton, the transfer window has been opened. "View details

In the morning, Shanghai Aluminum reduced its position in that month, and the focus of the transaction fell to 19400 yuan / ton. the actual spot transaction was about 30 yuan / ton in that month. After the Shanghai aluminum price moved down that month, the holding price was mainly raised. Affected by the tight liquidity of the supply, the spot discount narrowed by 10 yuan / ton compared with yesterday. Spot transactions in the Central Plains (Gongyi) area continue to warm up, and the willingness to purchase increases, but. "check the details.

[SMM analysis: Shanghai lead fell 3.5% in three days! Inventory refresh high lead prices since 2014, where to find support? SMM July 28th: today's Shanghai lead contract continued its downward trend in the previous days, once falling more than 1.7% in intraday trading and continuing to decline. By the close, the main Shanghai lead contract closed at 15870 yuan / ton with a drop of 1.52%. It should be noted that this is the third consecutive day of decline after its previous intraday high of 16420 yuan / ton, and today's closing price has fallen 3.5% from its high on July 26th. "check the details.

[SMM News: Shanghai Zinc closed down 1.31% concerned about the accumulated stock after dumping] Zinc in Shanghai has been in a state of narrow shock in July, and the fluctuation widened in the middle of the year, but became calm again. Today, Shanghai zinc opened lower, falling more than 1.35% to 22326 yuan / ton at one point in intraday trading, and then maintained the concussion trend. by the end of the day, the main share of Shanghai zinc was at 22240 yuan / ton, down 1.31%. As far as the current situation is concerned, the price of zinc in Shanghai is still in the normal shock range, and the subsequent need to continue to pay attention to the accumulation of storage and the spread of the overseas epidemic. It is expected that zinc will be in the short term. "View details

[SMM tin brief review: Shanghai-tin price high shock funds wait for news stimulus] in the face of high price shocks, both sides tend to be conservative compared with the previous performance, in the near future, it is necessary to prevent the impact of sudden news stimulation on the market and the outbreak of increasingly acute fundamental contradictions on breaking the market balance. "View details

[SMM Nickel brief Review: there is support for Shanghai Nickel to fall back and move its Center of Gravity up by 146000] SMM7 March 28: today's Shanghai Nickel main contract 2109 opened at 145180 yuan / ton early in the morning, with short-term consolidation at the beginning of the session, and then bullish positions led Shanghai Nickel concussion to rise. The nickel price reached 148550 yuan / ton and hit a new high in midday, recovering yesterday's decline, the center of gravity moved up, and nickel fell in the afternoon, shaking at 147000 yuan / ton. There was strong support at the 146000 position on the boll track, and finally closed at 146580 yuan / ton, up 1829 yuan / ton, or 1.26%, over the previous trading day. "check the details.

[Foshan stainless Steel Daily Review: short-term spot high slightly callback 200series steel price performance] SMM July 28th: midweek SS main contract overall weaker than yesterday's downward shock operation, spot market steel prices overall high small adjustment, 200 series and 400 series due to the rapid rise of raw materials short-term pullback room, but South China terminal demand is not prosperous, merchants adjustment range is not large, short-term SMM said.

[SMM Hangzhou thread weekly inventory: weak inventory of terminal operations affected by typhoon in East China] the steel market entered a high shock range this week. Yesterday, it was affected by a sharp fall in the external market. During the resonance period, spot prices dived high after noon, spot prices fell in chaos, and the market mentality disorder triggered small selling pressure, but the overall performance of spot prices remained strong and resistant. "View details

SMM Coke spot Daily Review: the price rise in the coke market is about to begin? SMM July 28 Coke News: today, the price of coke in Shandong Province is running steadily, and the market mostly takes a wait-and-see attitude. Recently, the production reduction of coke enterprises tends to be more stringent, and the environmental protection inspection and steel coke production limit policy in Shandong continue to affect the output release of coke enterprises. At present, many governments have asked to reduce crude steel production, and a number of steel mills in Shandong and Jiangsu have implemented production cuts. "check the details.

[SMM Electrolytic Manganese Daily Review: the price of manganese limited by power in the south has risen rapidly] according to SMM, the spot price of electrolytic manganese in China continues to rise today, and some mainstream steel enterprises have opened bids for electrolytic manganese and manganese ingots in August. Among them, the bidding price of manganese ingots in Nanjing Iron and Steel in August was 22800 yuan / ton, a sharp increase of 4700 yuan / ton compared with the previous month, and the purchase volume was the same as 1500 tons. The rapid rise in manganese prices is mainly due to the tight spot supply in the market. In addition, the power restriction and production restriction in Guangxi has not been alleviated, so. "check the details

[SMM analysis: polysilicon a small amount of bulk order transaction price is still strong] Today, polysilicon prices slightly downward adjustment, densification mainstream range of 198-205 yuan / kg, down 1.50 yuan / kg compared with yesterday. "View details

[SMM Daily Review: praseodymium and neodymium prices continue to rise gadolinium oxide inquiry active] on Wednesday, rare earth spot market enquiries were active, the prices of a number of products rose. The mainstream transaction of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 600000 yuan / ton in the morning, and the quotation was raised to 605000 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the transaction price has risen to 610000 yuan / ton, and some manufacturers have quoted it to 620000 yuan / ton. Gadolinium oxide mainstream reported 25-255000 yuan / ton, the holder is reluctant to sell, do not quote, the spot is difficult to find …. "View details

Important news of metals and industry

[southwest China's electrolytic aluminum enterprises are tightening power restrictions] according to SMM, recently, due to the influence of the summer power peak, the southern Electroweb power load pressure has not been reduced. Yunnan Electrolytic Aluminum Plant may be required to raise from the previous 25% production limit level to 30%. Electrolytic aluminum plants in Guizhou and Guangxi also began small power cuts two weeks ago. Some aluminum enterprises choose to deal with annual overhaul or a small amount of load reduction in advance. This week, the power restriction requirements have become stricter. Guizhou enterprises are required to cooperate with off-peak power consumption. SMM will continue to follow.

[bancassurance Regulatory Commission: great efforts should be made to do a good job in ecological protection and high-quality development of financial services in the Yellow River Basin] the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a special video conference on banking and insurance industry supporting ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. The meeting demanded that great efforts should be made to do a good job in ecological protection and high-quality development of financial services in the Yellow River basin. First, it is necessary to raise the political position. Second, we should dare to face problems directly and be good at solving problems. Banks and insurance institutions should take the water resources security and ecological environment protection of the Yellow River as rigid constraints. For enterprises and projects with high pollution, high water consumption, high energy consumption, high carbon emissions, and overcapacity, on the whole, restrictions should be imposed. Third, it is necessary to increase support for environmental protection, ecological restoration, disaster prevention and control, and pollution prevention and control in the Yellow River basin.

Recently, various provinces have deployed plans and measures to reduce crude steel production in the second half of the year, and some areas have issued task targets to steel enterprises. Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Gansu, Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi and other places have proposed that the annual crude steel output in 2021 will not exceed 2020. According to industry analysis, on the one hand, production restrictions will reduce the demand for raw materials and restrain the prices of iron ore and coke in the short term, but production restrictions will also break the balance between supply and demand in the steel market and increase the probability of rising steel prices. The concentration of iron and steel enterprises will go up further, and the profitability is expected to increase significantly.

[China Coal Association: coal supply will further increase in the second half of the year, local supply may be tight] the latest "report on Coal Economic Operation in the first half of 2021" issued by the China Coal Industry Association shows that coal supply will further increase in the second half of the year, but there may still be a shortage of supply in some areas. Looking forward to the coal market in the second half of the year, from the perspective of coal demand, the stable recovery of macro-economy, the peak of coal used in summer and winter, low inventory of power coal and other factors will drive the growth of coal demand. On the other hand, the increase of renewable energy generation output and the "double control" of energy consumption will restrain the growth of coal demand.

[development and Reform Commission: do a good job in ensuring coal supply and stabilizing prices during key areas and major activities] the 2021 Summer National Coal Fair solemnly opened in Chongqing. Xu Zhengbin, deputy director of the Economic Operation Regulation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, summed up energy production and consumption in the first half of the year. He stressed that it is necessary to further improve and improve the clean and reliable coal transportation system and coal reserve system, maintain the connecting mechanism of production and transportation in upstream and downstream industries, and give full play to the role of "stabilizer" in medium-and long-term contracts of coal. take the increase of coal mine production and supply as the main line, establish coal mine capacity reserve, flexible production and guarantee incentive mechanism, and improve the capacity and level of coal reserve. We will do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of coal in key areas and during major activities, and maintain the stable and orderly operation of the coal market.

[operation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission: make every effort to ensure the supply of electricity and coal in Henan and other places] recently, torrential rains in Henan have disrupted the freight transportation of Zhengzhou Railway Bureau, which has greatly affected the transportation of power coal, and the supply of power coal in many places is in urgent need. The Operation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission quickly contacted key coal enterprises such as the National Energy Group, China Coal Group, Jinneng Holdings, Lu'an Group, Shaanxi Coal Chemical Group, Shanxi Coking Coal Group and other key coal enterprises to prepare coal resources in advance and give priority to ensuring the supply of electric coal in Henan Province. On July 26th, the coal supply of Henan unified power plant reached 340000 tons, greatly exceeding the level of coal consumption of the day. In addition to Henan, Hebei and other places affected by rain and the Yangtze River Delta affected by typhoons have also increased the protection and supply of thermal coal to ensure that the inventory of power plants is at a reasonable level. In the next step, the Operation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission will continue to strengthen the monitoring of coal supply and consumption of power plants across the country, coordinate the dispatching of resources, and further increase the protection and supply of power coal to meet the peak demand for summer coal.

Cheng Weidong, Deputy General Manager of Dalian Commodity Exchange, will steadily promote the listing of recycled steel raw material futures and the continuous improvement of iron ore trading system. Continue to enhance China's voice in the international iron ore market. It will also optimize iron ore and other relevant contract rules, speed up the study of iron ore average price contracts, set up iron ore production plant depots, expand delivery areas, and continue to reduce delivery costs.

[SMM News] due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, three coke oven enterprises in Qingxu Park, Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, have lost money in the production of water quenching metallurgical coke. One of them began to limit production by 30-35% last Sunday, while the other two began to limit production one after another recently, and all three are preparing to increase the price of water quenching metallurgical coke by 120 yuan per ton, which will be implemented on the 29th.

[Canada's first Cobalt Industry successfully recovered Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium and other Battery Metals from Black Powder] SMM: recently, Canadian Cobalt smelter No. 1 Cobalt has successfully recovered lithium, cobalt and nickel from black powder in laboratory tests of its wet smelting process. In addition to lithium, nickel and cobalt, the test also showed the extraction of graphite and manganese.

[Rio Tinto announces $2.4 billion investment in Serbian lithium mine will become Europe's largest supplier] Mining giant (Rio Tinto) announced on Tuesday that it has approved a US $2.4 billion investment in the Serbian Jadar lithium borate project, which still needs further approval from the local government. Rio Tinto said the Jadar project would produce battery-grade lithium carbonate, a key material for mass production of batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage devices, and that the capacity of the project would make Rio the largest lithium supplier in Europe for at least the next 15 years.

Terminal information

Ningde era will release sodium ion batteries to the energy storage market? According to the official account of Ningde Times on July 28th, the press conference of Ningde Times Sodium Ion Battery will be held at 15:30 on July 29th. After Zeng Yuqun disclosed the relevant research and development trends at the shareholders' meeting at the end of May, this new technology is about to be unveiled. Sodium ion battery is not a new battery technology. This concept was first put forward in the 1970s and is still in the early stages of industrialization.

[China Automobile Association: the operating income of the automobile manufacturing industry exceeded 4 trillion yuan in the first half of 2021] according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first half of 2021, the operating income of the automobile manufacturing industry maintained a relatively rapid growth compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate continued to slow from January to May. In the first half of 2021, the operating income of the automobile manufacturing industry reached 4.28911 trillion yuan, an increase of 28% over the same period last year, accounting for 7.2% of the total operating income of industrial enterprises above scale.

Toyota announced that two Toyota plants in Aichi Prefecture, Japan will temporarily suspend production in early August due to problems with the scheduling of parts produced in Vietnam. Earlier, Toyota's other plants in Aichi County had decided to suspend production from the end of July to the first ten days of August.

[Apple earnings call: unusually strong demand in China, chip shortage or limit quarterly performance] after Tuesday's trading in the US Eastern time, Apple announced strong third-quarter results. In a subsequent conference call, Cook said that hardware demand in the global market, particularly in China, remained strong, but that future chip shortages could continue to limit Apple's hardware supply. as a result, Apple's sales performance slowed down in the next fiscal quarter.

[report: the sales volume of China's automobile market is expected to reach 30 million in 2025] the China Automotive Technology Research Center and Social Science Literature Publishing House have jointly issued the New Energy vehicle Blue Book: China New Energy vehicle Industry Development report (2021). The blue book points out that during the 14th five-year Plan period, the automobile industry will usher in a period of strategic opportunity, the popularization of new energy vehicles in China will accelerate, and intelligent technology will bring about changes in the whole automotive industry chain and even market terminal services. to lay a more solid foundation for China's automobile industry in the next five years or even to 2035. Production and sales in China's auto market will also grow steadily, and sales are expected to reach an all-time high of 30 million by 2025.

Recently, the General Administration of Market Supervision and Administration issued the provisions on the responsibility for the repair, replacement and return of Household Automobile products, which will come into effect on January 1, 2022. The new version of the three-package regulation adds the relevant provisions on "guaranteed repair, replacement and refund" for the failure of new energy vehicles such as power batteries and drive motors. If the engine, transmission, power battery, driving motor or its main parts need to be replaced due to quality problems, the household automobile products can be replaced or returned free of charge within 7 days from the date of validity of the three packages.