SMM Evening Comments (Jul 19): Shanghai nonferrous metals ended mixed as investors monitored virus and digested OPEC deal

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the impact of Typhoon Bavi is expected to continue intensifying. Downstream copper processing enterprises are showing strong buying enthusiasm, with some stockpiling in advance over concerns of logistics disruptions, providing solid demand-side support. Supplier behavior: after low-priced spot cargoes were quickly absorbed during the day, available spot supply remains tight, and suppliers’ sentiment of holding back from selling is strong. Some suppliers are holding cargoes in anticipation of higher prices, waiting to sell at elevated levels, further pushing up spot premiums. Import profit margin is near breakeven, but short-term supply from outside China is limited. In summary, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow, with the overall trend remaining strong. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual typhoon path and the sustainability of downstream stockpiling.

In North China, spot #1 copper cathode was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to parity against the front-month contract today, with an average discount of 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 102,820 yuan/mt, down 215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.