Zeshang Securities: photovoltaic demand to meet the upward inflection point, continue to push granular silicon, heterojunction equipment

Silicon prices fall for the first time in the year; photovoltaic demand will usher in an upward inflection point

1) Silicon prices have fallen for the first time since the beginning of the year. According to the Silicon Industry Branch, the price of polysilicon began to decline. Compared with the price quoted last week, the average transaction price of single crystal re-feeding materials this week was 214200 yuan / ton, down 1.38% from the previous month; the average transaction price of single crystal compact material was 211000 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from the previous week; and the average transaction price of single crystal cauliflower material was 208.2 yuan / kg, 1% lower than the previous week.

2) since December 2020, the price of silicon has risen by more than 150%, suppressing the terminal demand of the industry. Recently, CPIA issued an article calling for the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, the rising rate of silicon prices slowed significantly, and even began to decline in the near future. It is expected that silicon prices will form an inflection point downward and enter a benign range in the future, and the demand of the photovoltaic industry is expected to usher in an upward inflection point.

3) Photovoltaic will become the absolute main force of carbon neutralization. The global installed capacity of photovoltaic is 130GW in 2020. We estimate that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic worldwide will reach 1200-1400GW in 2030, and will increase by about 10 times in the next 10 years, with CAGR reaching 25% and 27%.

Photovoltaic / photovoltaic equipment: embracing three new technologies-granular silicon, heterojunction and large size

1. Granular silicon: the advantages are gradually showing, and the process of industrialization will be accelerated, which is expected to become a new generation of silicon technology, which will help photovoltaic cost reduction.

1) demand side: in May, Jing'ao announced the procurement of nearly 150000 tons of specialized granular silicon, and the large-scale procurement of 10,000 tons indicates that granular silicon has been recognized by the market, marking the beginning of large-scale industrialization. Prior to this, Central and Longji have signed a single purchase contract with Xiexin. At present, CNC, Jing'ao, Central, Longji and other mainstream wafer manufacturers have tried granular silicon one after another, and the doping proportion has been greatly increased than before. When the granular silicon material is used in the mass production of N-type crystal rods, the quality parameters are stable and the crystal drawing cost is reduced.

2) supply side: at present, Poly Xiexin has a total planned granular silicon production capacity of 500000 tons in Xuzhou, Leshan and Inner Mongolia. Among them, CNC and Poly Xiexin jointly built 300000 tons, and the machine participated 35% in the first phase of the 60, 000-ton granular silicon project, which will strongly promote the process of granular silicon industrialization. We expect the 300000-ton granular silicon project of CNC and Poly Xiexin to proceed smoothly; it is expected that China's granular silicon production capacity will reach 10-200000 tons in 2022, and the release will be accelerated in the future. In June, Poly Xiexin granular silicon technology application demonstration project was officially put into production, which will accelerate the process of industrialization and mass production of granular silicon, and it is expected that the market acceptance of granular silicon will accelerate.

2. Heterojunction: recent major breakthroughs in Huasheng, Tongwei and other projects, large-scale application is approaching, and the industry CAGR will exceed 80% in the next 5 years.

The main results are as follows: 1) Photovoltaic heterojunction is very important to reduce the cost of photovoltaic power and popularize it all over the world in order to achieve "carbon neutralization". It is the "future star" of photovoltaic. In the future, it will replace PERC to become the third generation mainstream application technology of photovoltaic cells.

2) the industry will give birth to the leader of market capitalization of 100 billion yuan: it is estimated that the market space of HJT equipment is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan in 2025, and CAGR will be 80% in 5 years. Under the assumption of 20% net interest rate and 25 times PE, the market capitalization of HJT equipment industry is 200 billion yuan. It is expected that the market share of the industry leader is expected to exceed 50%, and the market capitalization is expected to reach 100 billion in the future. HJT equipment "let a hundred flowers blossom" and multi-technical routes coexist.

3. "large size": "reduce cost and increase efficiency", which brings a new round of iterative demand, and equipment opens an iterative era of large-scale renewal.

Large size has the advantage of "reducing cost and increasing efficiency". We judge that large size (210x182) will become the mainstream market in 2021 and will occupy more than 90% of the market share in 2022. Basically, most of the new equipment demand in the market is implemented in accordance with the 210 downward compatibility standard, and the stock equipment will be gradually replaced. Manufacturers of crystal furnaces, slicers, battery chips and module equipment will benefit obviously.