With the increase of the installed capacity of power batteries for new energy vehicles, the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries has rebounded, and the price of lithium iron phosphate materials in China has soared in recent months.
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As of Feb. 10, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) offered by Bertre, German Nanotechnology and Sinorama Technology in lithium battery positive and negative materials enterprises has increased from 36000 yuan / ton in November 2020 to 41000 yuan / ton, an increase of about 13.9%.
After the increase in the price of raw materials, power battery enterprises are the first to bear the pressure. A relevant person in charge of a domestic power battery company said in an interview with Galaxy a few days ago that the direct impact of the rise in the price of lithium iron phosphate raw materials on power battery enterprises is the increase in costs. however, at present, enterprises have used some strategies to deal with the challenges brought by the transmission of supply enterprises.
The price of lithium iron phosphate has increased significantly.
Lithium iron phosphate battery refers to the lithium ion battery which uses lithium iron phosphate as cathode material. At present, the domestic enterprises that produce lithium iron phosphate material include Sinorama technology, German nanotechnology and so on.
With the continuous growth of the new energy vehicle market, the market demand of upstream raw material enterprises has also been driven. In January this year, there were media reports that the head lithium iron phosphate material factory had closed the offer because the order was very full, the high-quality supply was in short supply, and a new round of price increases was brewing in February.
Guanghua science and technology, German nanotechnology and other mainstream lithium iron phosphate (power) materials enterprises quoted 36000 yuan / ton in mid-November 2020, but in January 2021, the corresponding quotation rose to 38000 yuan / ton, and in February it has exceeded 40, 000 yuan per ton. in recent months, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power) materials shows an upward trend.
"the rise in raw material prices is mainly affected by the problem of supply and demand. At present, the supply of raw materials is relatively tight, and the upstream enterprises of raw materials also have the problem of tight supply. In addition, at present, many automobile mainframe factories are considering the possibility of lithium iron phosphate batteries in related models, so this year the industry has generally increased its expectations for the lithium iron phosphate battery market, and the increase in the price of raw materials is also expected. " The relevant person in charge of the above-mentioned power battery enterprises analyzed and said.
After the increase in the price of raw materials, power battery companies were the first to be affected. The above official said that the most direct impact of rising raw material prices on power battery companies is rising costs, and different power battery companies also have different ways to deal with the pressure transmitted by upstream enterprises.
According to the person in charge, his company has long predicted that there may be a wave of rising prices of raw materials or tight supply this year, so they have reserved an appropriate amount of inventory to meet the demand in the next few months; secondly, enterprises have long been deployed to the downstream industrial chain of upstream raw materials, alleviating the challenge to a certain extent. In addition, through their own technological innovation, or the control of the manufacturing process, part of the cost pressure will be absorbed and digested independently, so as to reduce the pressure of the downstream automobile main engine factory.
At present, it is not clear whether the price trend of lithium iron phosphate materials will continue to grow. The relevant responsible person judged that with the increase in demand for installed capacity, there will be obvious room for raw material prices to rise in the first quarter of this year, and the second quarter will enter a stable stage. The price increase will not be very large, and it will be difficult to judge in the fourth quarter, depending on the market performance of lithium iron phosphate batteries throughout the year.
The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is expected to be greatly increased.
According to the material type, vehicle power battery can be divided into ternary battery, lithium iron phosphate battery, lithium manganate battery, lithium titanate battery and so on. Among them, ternary battery and lithium iron phosphate battery are the two mainstream power batteries, and the data show that the market share of the cumulative installed capacity of these two batteries in 2020 is about 99.4%.
Compared with lithium iron phosphate battery, ternary battery has the largest installed capacity because of its advantages such as high energy density and low temperature resistance, with a market share of about 61.1% in 2020, while lithium iron phosphate battery is slightly inferior in terms of energy density and so on. has been suppressed by ternary batteries, with a market share of about 38.3% in 2020.
However, compared with ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries also have their advantages, such as higher temperature resistance, higher safety and stability, lower cost and so on. And it is worth noting that although the current ternary battery is still the mainstream, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is greatly increased. According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was the only type of battery that increased in 2020, with an annual increase of 20.6% compared with the same period last year.
Galaxy Securities believes that, on the one hand, with the continuous maturity of the research and development technology of power battery enterprises, the promotion and application of CTP technology in Ningde era and BYD blade battery technology can reduce costs and improve the energy density of battery system at the same time, so that lithium iron phosphate battery has the characteristics of high safety and low cost, and its market competitiveness has been further enhanced. On the other hand, competition in the domestic new energy vehicle market is becoming more and more fierce, and lithium iron phosphate has a price advantage over ternary materials, prompting car manufacturers to use lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce production costs and seize market share. For example, Hongguang MINIEV has a strong sales performance after its listing in 2020, and popular models such as Tesla Model 3 (lithium iron phosphate version) and BYD Han have also been launched in 2020. The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is increased.
As for the market expectation of lithium iron phosphate battery this year, the relevant responsible persons of the above power battery companies believe that with the weakening of the subsidy effect of new energy vehicles, the cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate battery may become more prominent within the range of 300-500km mileage. With the hot sales of models such as Tesla Model 3 and Hongguang MINIEV, the market for the growth of lithium iron phosphate battery installation will continue. In addition, with the further development of recharging infrastructure, pure electric vehicles will no longer blindly pursue high energy and high battery life in the future, and lithium iron phosphate batteries will also usher in a turning point.
The layout of related enterprises has been expanded.
The expectation of the lithium iron phosphate battery market in the industry is increasing, and the layout of related enterprises is also expanding.
Among the upstream materials enterprises, China Nuclear Titanium dioxide announced on February 3 that Gansu Dongfang Titanium Industry Co., Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, intends to invest in a project with an annual production capacity of 500000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, mainly to build a lithium iron phosphate production line and supporting facilities. the total investment is expected to be about 12.108 billion yuan.
Also as an upstream enterprise, German Nano signed a project investment agreement with Ningde Times and Jiang'an County people's Government in mid-January, agreeing to invest in the construction of an annual lithium iron phosphate project with an annual production capacity of 80, 000 tons in Jiang'an County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province. the total investment of the project is about 1.8 billion yuan. German Nano said in the announcement that the construction of the project will further expand the company's lithium iron phosphate production capacity to meet market demand.
In early January, Fulin Seiko also announced that its subsidiary Jiangxi sublimation New Materials Co., Ltd. plans to invest in the construction of a new energy lithium cathode material project with an annual output of 50,000 tons, with an estimated total investment of 600 million yuan. The project will be implemented in Shehong Western International Technical Cooperation Industrial Park. On January 21, Fulin Seiko disclosed the progress of the project and said that the construction of the project had been officially launched.
In addition to the domestic leading enterprises of lithium iron phosphate materials, the head power battery enterprises are also accelerating the expansion of the territory of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Among them, the Ningde era layout of lithium iron phosphate action is more, the above-mentioned joint German nano-investment lithium iron phosphate project is only one of them, Ningde era also through capital increase to further expand the layout.
On December 25 last year, Xiangtan Dianhua announced that Ningde Times, BYD and other companies have increased their capital participation in Hunan Yuneng, with a total capital increase of 648 million yuan. It is understood that Hunan Yuneng is a mixed ownership company jointly owned by BYD, Ningde Times, SAIC and China General Motors, focusing on R & D, production and sales of lithium iron phosphate and nickel-cobalt-manganese ternary materials.
In addition, on January 11 this year, Ningde era also increased investment in Jiangxi sublimation with Fulin Seiko and other enterprises to build a 50,000-ton lithium cathode material project in Shehong City, Sichuan Province. Among them, Ningde era directly increases capital by RMB 20 million, and has the right to choose to increase capital by RMB 44 million by itself or by a designated third party.
Among other head power battery companies, Guoxuan Tech has made a breakthrough in lithium iron phosphate battery technology. On January 8 this year, Guoxuan Tech released the lithium iron phosphate soft package battery with a monomer energy density of 210Wh/kg and JTM technology. It is reported that the energy density of this lithium iron phosphate soft bag battery has increased greatly, which has exceeded the level of ternary conventional 523 battery. It is believed that in view of the cost, safety and cycle performance advantages of lithium iron phosphate compared with ternary materials, this lithium iron phosphate soft bag battery will be a strong competitor to match mid-range models.
To sum up, in the context of the expected improvement of the lithium iron phosphate battery market, the relevant leading enterprises have made some actions in the layout. Galaxy Securities had expected global sales of new energy vehicles to reach 4.31 million in 2021 and corresponding power battery shipments of 267GWH, an increase of 45.1 per cent year-on-year. From the perspective of market segmentation, benefiting from technological updates and cost advantages, the lithium iron phosphate battery market is expected to continue to pick up.
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