The expectation of "liquidity tightening" hit the hot money of holding group stocks, but this data hit a new high on the first day of the year.

Today, A shares once again staged a spectacle of nearly 100 shares rising by the daily limit. Unlike in January when the institutions huddled together a small number of core assets, a large number of individual stocks were marginalized, today's rise of the vast number of small-market stocks show their magic, compete for wonder. According to the data, 393 stocks rose 5% today and 2,332 stocks rose, both of which reached the highest level since January 18, and the data with an increase of more than 5% was the highest since the first day of the year.

The short-term dominance of the market has shifted from institutions to hot money.

Today, the A-share market shows a state of both ice and fire, which is mainly reflected in two aspects, the first is market sentiment, and the second is market style, that is, between institutional varieties and hot capital varieties.

In terms of market sentiment, 82 stocks rose to their highest level since January 18, while 47 fell to a three-week high since January 11. The number of companies with an increase of more than 5% was 393, second only to January 4, ranking second so far this year, while the number of households with a decline of more than 5% was more than 100 for seven consecutive trading days, including more than 200 for five trading days.

After a series of adjustments last week, stocks rebounded widely today, but there are still many stocks that fell sharply, mainly due to the lower-than-expected results in the annual report. However, the pre-exposure period of the annual report ended yesterday, and the weekend was the peak. Today, it was the last batch of mine stocks that had an impact on the market. As of today, the annual report predicts that Lei is basically over.

In terms of market style, the number of board stocks in the two cities rebounded from 4 to 12 today, with a marked rebound in short-term sentiment in the market. After the second divergence in the high level of institutional hugging varieties last week, the trend holding group plate entered a period of low tide, thus dragging down the stock index into a state of adjustment. In the second half of last week, stocks, which had been relatively resistant to falls, were finally unable to resist the adjustment of the general trend, and finally formed to make up for the decline. After the spread of panic, hot-money-dominated linked-board stocks fell rapidly for two consecutive trading days from 14 on Wednesday, to 11 on Thursday and 4 on Friday. Among them, four on Friday set a new two-month low since December 7. However, after the short-term mood fell to the freezing point, today's market speculation is obviously hot, hot spots emerge one after another, gold, biodegradable materials, media entertainment, registration of new shares and other theme sectors have a good performance.

In contrast, as one of the manifestations of institutional huddling, the one-year high did not perform as well during today's rebound as it did when the market stabilized and rebounded. The number of one-year highs fell to a multi-month low of 24 on Thursday and Friday when market sentiment collapsed and market sentiment collapsed. Today, the market stabilized and rebounded to only 45.

The obvious reference data come from January 11, when the first high divergence was made, when the one-year record fell to a trough of 40 on January 15, and then quickly rebounded again. In the three trading days from January 21 to January 25, the number reached more than 100 for three consecutive trading days, which were 112, 131 and 156 respectively.

Some market analysts believe that this shows that after the second fall, the intensity of the rebound has been significantly weaker than that after the first fall, the short-term dominance of the market shows signs of tilting from institutions to hot money.

Liquidity tightening is expected to impact the white horse stock, but the turnover of the CSI 500 rose month-on-month.

Last week, A shares showed a significant downward trend, the turnover of the main index decreased month-on-month. The Shanghai 50 trading volume dropped the most month-on-month, the market activity decreased, and the turnover rate was lower than that of the historical center. In addition, northward capital showed a net outflow in January for the first time since its opening, and foreign investors were depressed about A-share asset allocation. But at the same time, the turnover of the CSI 500 increased month-on-month.

In this regard, some market analysts believe that as the epidemic will evolve towards a gradual weakening in the future, central banks' attitudes towards liquidity have begun to undergo a subtle change. Liquidity expectations in the US in February depend on the epidemic, and if the outbreak is expected to be brought under control, it will raise expectations of liquidity tightening. Whether the epidemic can be controlled depends on the smooth popularization of the vaccine. Therefore, the expectation of liquidity tightening is linked to the expectation of vaccine popularity, and the faster the vaccine is popularized, the stronger the expectation of liquidity tightening will be.

The impact of this on A shares is mainly reflected in white horse blue chips. With the increasing influence of foreign capital on domestic institutions, the impact of US debt yield on the valuation of leading enterprises in various key industries in China is becoming more and more obvious. Us bond yields reflect US liquidity. Prior to this, the plunge in US stocks triggered a sharp fall in A shares in the first quarter of 2020, during which A shares actually fell the most not subject stocks, but white horse blue chips. The decline of the Shanghai 50 index was more ferocious than that of other indexes. Therefore, the relative increase in the turnover of the CSC 500 indicates that institutional funds have a tendency to do corresponding defense, which is more beneficial to the varieties of small and medium-sized market capitalization, but also conducive to the speculation of hot money on the varieties of small market capitalization.

The latest research report of Southwest Securities points out that the biggest difference between the current market huddling and the previous huddling is that when the previous huddling disintegrates, the leading stocks will fall more and more expensive, and the fundamentals of the main lines of this gathering are still healthy, falling will bring down the valuations of leading stocks. There will be no major collapse this time, but it will take time to digest the valuation. In this process, the expected rate of return of the original Caotuan varieties will be reduced, the hot spots of the market will show more diversified and scattered characteristics, and some varieties that were obviously suppressed under Caotuan will start to repair the market.