Macro Roundup (Dec 15)

SHANGHAI, Dec 15 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The dollar fell close to two-year lows on Monday as renewed hopes for a Brexit deal and U.S. coronavirus relief plan, as well as progress on COVID-19 vaccines, lifted riskier currencies.

The pound gained after the UK and European Union agreed on Sunday to continue Brexit talks and the EU’s chief negotiator said a deal was still possible.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 fell on Monday as fears of additional Covid-19 restrictions offset the optimism around a vaccine rollout.

The 30-stock Dow closed lower by 184.82 points, or 0.6%, at 29,861.55. At its session high, the Dow was up more than 200 points and hit an all-time high. The S&P 500 declined by 0.4% to 3,647.49, posting its first four-day losing streak since Sept. 21. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed, rising 0.5% to 12,440.04.

Lawmakers released the latest proposal for another round of economic relief on Monday evening, splitting a previous bipartisan proposal into two parts.

The new plan calls for $748 billion in spending for programs that are popular on both sides of the aisle, including an additional $300 per week in federal unemployment benefits and another $300 billion for more loans under the Paycheck Protection Program.

A second $160 billion bill would include the more contentious areas of business liability protections and financial aid to state and local governments.

Additionally, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discussed the stimulus proposal and the broader government funding negotiations on Monday evening, Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill said on Twitter. The pair “discussed the urgency of the committees finishing their work as soon as possible,” Hammill said.

The latest step toward a stimulus deal comes as investors and Americans at large grapple with a bleak near-term outlook but prospects of economic growth and the possible end of the pandemic in 2021.

On the coronavirus front, the first round of shots from the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech were given in the U.S. on Monday, but the country also passed 300,000 deaths from Covid-19, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio also warned residents that a full shutdown may be needed to protect the city’s hospitals.

Oil prices gained on Monday amid hopes that a rollout of coronavirus vaccines will lift global fuel demand.

Brent crude futures for February rose 32 cents, or 0.6%, to $50.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January were up 42 cents, or 0.9%, at $46.99 a barrel, its highest level in nine months.

Brent and WTI have rallied for six consecutive weeks, their longest stretch of weekly gains since June.

Gold prices slid on Monday as the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine in the United States drove optimism in wider financial markets with investors banking on a resultant economic recovery.

Euro zone industrial production increased by 2.1% in October from the previous month, official statistics revealed Monday.

For the week ahead, market participants will focus on a series of central bank meetings, including the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday.

Key economic data slated for release today include China’s fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales data for November, New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey index for December and US industrial production for November.