[SMM Analysis] Lithium Carbonate Price rises sharply and Lithium Battery Plate strengthens. Prices are expected to rise slowly next year.

SMM12 March 7: today, lithium battery stock prices strengthened, as of midday close, Baotailong rose by the daily limit, Shengxin Lithium Energy rose nearly 8%, Yongxing Materials, Penghui Energy followed.

According to SMM research, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has shown an overall upward trend since the end of July. as of today, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 44500 yuan / ton, up 4750 yuan / ton from the lowest level since the beginning of the year, an increase of about 12%. As for industrial-grade lithium carbonate, the price has been rising continuously since September. As of today, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 41000 yuan / ton, up 6000 yuan / ton from the lowest level since the beginning of the year, or 17.14%.

Average price of lithium carbonate

"Click to view the SMM metal industry chain database

Some orders for electric carbon are being negotiated this week, and high prices are expected to rise to at least 46000 yuan / ton. Some large lithium salt factories in Jiangxi and Sichuan have raised their quotations to 50,000 yuan / ton in the first quarter of next year.

Recently, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate has risen too fast, the inquiry in the lower reaches has increased, and the mood of replenishing the stock has deepened. The lock volume of 45000 yuan / ton of quasi-electric carbon in some material factories is prepared for inventory at the end of the year, and the price still has an upward trend. Qinghai quotes have been raised across the board, but there is no deal for the time being, and it is expected that the contract will be signed gradually next week, and the transaction price will go up.

Overall, lithium carbonate prices bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2020 and continued to rise in the first quarter of 2021. Supply increment may affect price fluctuations slightly.

Looking forward to next year, the first quarter will continue the mood of stock preparation at the end of the year, the structure of supply and demand will not change greatly, and the price may steadily rise to 50,000 yuan / ton. Starting from the second quarter, the supply gradually increased compared with the same period last year, and the overseas import volume is also expected to increase compared with the same period last year. Superimposing May and June is the off-season for procurement, prices may fall slightly, and the demand side of the third and fourth quarters will gradually begin to impulse, and prices will gradually rise.

Market voice

Central Plains Securities: the global new energy vehicle industry continues to be booming, and the consensus on carbon emission reduction is the long-term driving force for the development of the industry. Global new energy vehicles have developed into dual market drivers in China and Europe, and gradually transitioned to product-driven. It is expected that China's new energy vehicles will grow by 40% in 2021, maintaining the industry's "stronger than the market" investment rating. It is proposed to be laid out around five main lines: first, the leader in the subdivision of key materials of power lithium battery and lithium battery; second, Tesla's domestic supply chain; third, electrolyte and lithium iron phosphate industry chain; fourth, lithium equipment supply chain; and fifth, investment opportunities after cross-border integration of new energy vehicles with energy and transportation.

Guotai Junan Securities: from lithium ore to lithium salt, it is optimistic that the price of lithium industry will rise across the board in 2021. In 2021, the supply of lithium concentrate will be tight and the price will rise, which will push up the back end of the cost curve of the lithium industry (warping tail effect), supporting the rising price of lithium salt. We expect the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate to rise to 60,000 / ton in 2021. The rapid development of new energy vehicles has driven the rapid growth of the lithium industry. We predict that the lithium industry will maintain a growth rate of 25% in the next five years. On the supply side, the concentration of the lithium industry will gradually increase, and the resource end dominated by lithium mines will gradually enter a shortage in 2021. I am optimistic about the overall rise in prices.