Yadi has sold tens of millions of two-wheeled electric vehicles, soaring sales and replacement demand will create a huge market space.

SMM News: Yadi Holdings (1585.HK) has sold 10 million two-wheeled electric vehicles in 2020, which makes the market pay close attention to the sales performance of two-wheeled electric vehicles. Financial Associated Press reporter over the past few days found that, in addition to Yadi, Mavericks, Xinri, Emma and other electric car brand sales have increased to varying degrees, of which Mavericks electric sales in Xiamen have doubled. However, some retailers said that the backlog of demand during the outbreak has declined after it was released during the peak season.

The short-term peak season may be over, but the capital layout has only just begun. With Fordi batteries less than a month ago, the first batch of Didi green orange batteries went offline. So far, the domestic power battery giants 300750.SZ, 002074.SZ, 300014.SZ and 002594.SZ have all entered the electric bicycle market. Driven by the new national standard, the replacement of lead-acid batteries for lithium batteries in two-wheeled electric vehicles will become a new trend. It is reported that at present, there is a replacement demand for about 100 million over-standard cars in China, coupled with the release of the new national standard electric vehicles, the resulting market space can not be underestimated.

Overall increase in sales of two-wheeled electric vehicles

The sales of Mavericks electric cars have increased significantly since September, and so far the sales have nearly doubled compared with the same period last year, the general manager of Mavericks Electric Xiamen told the Financial Associated Press. When asked if it was just regional growth, he said that the growth situation may be different, but through exchanges with the industry, we can know that overall sales are rising across the country.

According to the official website of NIU.US, the company sold 250889 electric scooters in the third quarter of this year, accounting for more than half of the total sales in the first half of the year, up 67.9% from a year earlier. Among them, sales in the Chinese market increased by 70.2 per cent to 245293 vehicles compared with the same period last year, while sales in the international market increased by 6.3 per cent to 5596 vehicles.

A number of retailers, including Yadi, Emma and Golden Diamond, said sales were up year-on-year. Dealers who represent a number of electric car brands, including Shanghaojie and Emma, said that sales of ordinary household two-wheeled electric vehicles grew the fastest compared with the same period last year, while two-wheeled electric cars for takeout did not change much. Overall, it is estimated to have grown by nearly 30% year-on-year so far in may, although it fell in November from a month earlier.

As for the reasons for the decline, the dealers said that the release of demand accumulated during the outbreak was almost complete, while the traditional peak season of the school season had passed, and the next peak season needed to start next spring, around March. For the whole year, sales may grow by less than 30% compared with the same period last year. Retailers of Golden Diamond electric cars said that online sales of two-wheeled electric cars have greatly increased this year, and the number of stores has increased to some extent to divert customers from brick-and-mortar stores.

The sales data disclosed by a number of manufacturers echoed with the information obtained by the reporter. On November 23rd, Yadi Holdings disclosed that its sales of two-wheeled electric vehicles had reached 10 million in 2020. The sales performance significantly exceeded the 6.09 million vehicles for the whole of 2019, equivalent to a sharp increase of more than 60 per cent. In addition, revenue and net profit of 603787.SH rose 78.54% and 38.44% in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year.

A reporter from the Financial Associated Press contacted Xinri shares and learned that since the beginning of the second quarter, the domestic electric two-wheeler consumption market has recovered rapidly due to the rapid growth of demand for new national standards and consumption formats such as takeout logistics, city distribution, online shopping, and shared travel.

However, it is worth noting that in the case of a significant year-on-year increase in sales, in addition to the above-mentioned Mavericks electric car Xiamen General Generation said that the price fluctuation is small, a number of retailers have revealed that retail prices have decreased compared with the previous period (including event promotion).

Replacement demand creates a huge market

Two-wheeled electric vehicles, which are "submerged" by electric cars, are constantly plucking the "heartstrings" of capital. Less than a month ago, Fudi Battery Co., Ltd. (BYD's battery independent brand, referred to as "Fudi Battery") went offline the first batch of Didi citrus batteries. At this point, the domestic power battery giant Ningde era, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, BYD have entered the electric bicycle market. It is reported that Ningde era has cooperated with many leading enterprises, such as Emma, Yadi, Xinri, Tailing and Hello Travel.

The market is widely bullish. Guosheng Securities Research report said that at the industry level, the domestic market benefits from the lithium replacement demand spawned by the new national standard, which is expected to release more than 35 million vehicles per year in the next 2-3 years, superimposing the gradual release of market demand in Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia. Under multi-factor resonance, the industry is expected to usher in a period of rapid development in the next 2-3 years, and the long-term demand is expected to be close to 4500-50 million vehicles.

The market space generated by lithium battery replacement can not be ignored. At present, considering the cost, most electric two-wheelers still use lead-acid batteries. Founder Securities Research News shows that lead and acid accounted for more than 95% of the overall battery consumption of two-wheelers in 2019, the installed capacity was at the 100Gwh level, and lead-acid duopolies (unlisted companies: Tianneng Power, Chaowei Power) monopolized 87% of the market.

In the field of lithium-ion batteries for two-wheeled vehicles, there are mainly companies such as Yiwei Lithium Energy and Ningde Times in A shares, but the proportion is not high. The corresponding plate of Yiwei lithium industry mainly corresponds to high-end customers of electric two-wheeled vehicles, and relevant sources of the company told the Financial Associated Press that at present, the company's three-dimensional cylindrical batteries (the main product is 18650 batteries) are not only used in electric two-wheeled vehicles, but also have power tools. Demand growth has begun to emerge since the beginning of the year, and demand in this sector is now in short supply, but it is power tools that bring more increments.

Given the vast market space, lithium giants will not let themselves fall behind in the replacement of lithium electricity in electric two-wheelers. CICC said a few days ago that the strict restrictions on body weight in the new national standard will also accelerate the increase in the permeability of lightweight lithium electric models, which is expected to be close to 60% by 2030 (currently less than 15%).