SMM News: how should new energy vehicles go in the next 15 years? At the 2020 Global New Energy vehicle supply chain Innovation Conference, Wang Binggang, head of the National New Energy vehicle Innovation Project expert Group, revealed that the Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy vehicle Technology (version 2.0) has been reviewed by experts and will be officially released soon.
"I just interpreted it more clearly." In an exclusive interview with the Financial Associated Press, Wang Binggang repeatedly stressed that "the new technology roadmap is consistent with the previously released" New Energy vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035) "(draft for soliciting opinions). That is, version 1.0 is consistent."
On December 3, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Development Plan of New Energy vehicle Industry (2021-2035) (draft for soliciting opinions), proposing that the sales of new energy vehicles will account for 25% by 2025. The 2.0 version of the Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy vehicle Technology reduces this proportion to 15% and 25%.
"this target (15%, 25%) is relatively objective. At present, the sales of new energy vehicles dominated by pure electric vehicles account for only about 4%. There are still a little more than four years to go before 2025. It is already a relatively rapid development to increase the proportion to 15%, 20%." Wang Binggang explained that when the relevant departments developed version 1.0, the global novel coronavirus epidemic had not yet broken out, and the domestic economic situation was not affected by the epidemic, so they set a target of 25%.
"however, consumers of pure electric vehicles have accepted it, an industrial chain has been formed, and everyone already knows how the infrastructure will be done." Wang Binggang said that at present, the overall development of new energy vehicles in China is very optimistic, but the progress has been delayed. "therefore, the new technology roadmap proposes that by 2035, the sales of energy-efficient vehicles and new energy vehicles will each account for about 50%."
Wang Rongjin, director of the New Energy Automobile Industry Tramway Federation, said, "the new technological route is very mixed, and in essence, it also encourages domestic automobile companies to adopt diversified technological paths to meet the needs of energy conservation, emission reduction and industrial development."
According to sales data in 2019, the penetration of new energy vehicles in China was only about 5 per cent, which fell further to 4 per cent in August this year. This means that according to the new technology route, more than 95% of the traditional cars in the car market will face hybrid transformation.
"in terms of hybrid technology, the three major Japanese companies, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Hyundai Kia of the Korean system, have greater advantages, with fuel consumption of less than five liters per 100 kilometers, while not many domestic car companies have done well, and Geely is relatively in the lead. The fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is about five or six liters." Wang Binggang told reporters that the expert group's opinion is to make self-brand car companies pay attention to the development of hybrid technology and invest more in research and development in this area, rather than plunging into the research and development of pure electric vehicles.
On the whole, the 2.0 version of "Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy vehicle Technology" provides more options for car companies to reduce carbon emissions while adhering to the same strategic direction of electrification. Fuel vehicles will be transformed into electrified models, including hybrid vehicles.
Wang Binggang said that the 2.0 version of the "Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy vehicle Technology" is the reference given by nearly 1,000 experts and does not represent the official position. "if there is a policy landing, then, there may be higher-than-expected sales of hybrid models in the future."
It is worth noting that Wang Binggang denied the prediction of "high probability of further tilting low fuel consumption vehicles on the basis of 'double points', and said that the" double points "policy also gives two routes. Car companies can completely reduce fuel consumption through hybrid technology to meet the requirements of the" double points "rule.
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