SMM Network News: since the beginning of September, the black plate continues to callback. During the daytime trading session yesterday, most varieties of the domestic commodity market fell, and by the close of trading yesterday afternoon, the black plate led the decline, with iron ore, stainless steel, manganese silicon and coke falling more than 2%.
Tao Rui, director of the China Merchants Futures Black Industry Group, said that the recent decline in the variety of the black plate is mainly due to the fact that the peak season of continuous trading in the market from July to August is not expected to come, superimposing the factors of weak table data, and the black plate ushered in a macro and micro resonance double-click, the rate of decline suddenly accelerated, and under the third pressure of profit redistribution in the industrial chain, the raw material side dropped even more, especially the coke priced domestically. And manganese silicon with overcapacity.
"looking back on the previous market, the turnover of building materials, the rise and fall of threads since June, and the intraday rise and fall of A shares completely Synchronize, fully illustrates the stronger financial attributes of the black plate this year." In his view, since June, monetary policy and credit environment have turned marginally, and even if money flows into the entity, it will be difficult for credit growth to reach a new high, thus suppressing the high growth rate of total market demand.
"for infrastructure, the growth contribution this year mainly comes from the release of special bonds, and with the relaxation of shed reform since June, there has been an obvious differentiation in the investment of special bonds from July to August compared with the first half of the year, with the proportion of shed reform reaching about 30%. The industrial park projects, which accounted for the largest proportion in the first half of the year, fell to less than 30%, which limits the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rate of the follow-up infrastructure." Tao Rui said that this year's shed reform is limited to the original projects that have already started and have yielded certain results, and the strength of steel may not be as strong as the new industrial park projects with the same amount of capital.
In addition, he also said that in the real estate market, policy controls have been strengthened since July, and the residential mortgage sector, which is the most critical source of funds in the real estate market, is facing the tightening of bank loans and the continued downward growth of loan growth, so it may also be difficult for the follow-up growth rate of real estate sales to reach a new high.
Due to the factors that supported the demand growth rate to reach a new high, it still did not improve after entering September, further magnifying the pressure on the supply side of lumber and increasing the profit redistribution pressure of the raw material side after the downstream profit contraction.
Jiang Weibo, a researcher at Zhongzhou Futures, said that the spot profit of threaded blast furnace has been at a loss for nearly a month, and the situation of low profit and low basis this year is similar to that in 2016, but the difference is that a large number of crude steel replacement capacity has been put into production this year and the thread inventory is high. "if steel and raw materials rise as a whole, the increase of iron ore will be higher than that of threads, and the profits of steel mills will be more difficult to repair, so the immediate profit loss of the blast furnace of rebar mills will eventually fall as a whole, but the raw materials will decline even more to repair profits."
Tao Rui believes that looking forward to the future, before there is no continuous removal of finished materials to the warehouse, or before the marginal substantial removal of the warehouse, the trend of black plate varieties is expected to be weak, and the thread may even begin to refer to the reasonable winter storage price under high inventory. Manganese silicon reasonable center will also move down with the expected steel demand, and it is recommended to give priority to multi-wood profits in operation.
"the immediate profit loss of threaded blast furnace, the coking enterprise still has a relatively high level of 276 yuan / ton, the industrial concentration of the coking industry is much lower than that of the iron and steel industry, and the unreasonable profit distribution of the industrial chain needs to be repaired." Jiang Weibo said that previous market data showed that the net coke production capacity from September to November was 8.16 million tons, the coke supply end pressure increased, the superimposed coking profit was on the high side, and the coke would run weakly in the later stage.
"however, as the absolute volume of special debt and real estate from August to September is guaranteed, coke capacity is still net reduced, iron ore inventory is still structurally tight, and manganese and silicon production can be rebalanced after inspection and reduction, so there is no need for the market to be too pessimistic." Tao Rui said.
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