[SMM Analysis] can there be room for the market to rise after Shanghai tin has narrowed its gains for nearly seven days?

SMM9 March 9: today, dragged down by the external environment, the panic in the financial markets is running high again. Coupled with the fact that Britain says it is preparing for Brexit without an agreement, the pound has tumbled against the dollar and a number of factors have dampened sentiment in the metal market. The non-ferrous metal plate as a whole fell, with half of the decline of more than 2%. Shanghai tin also continued its decline last night, opening low and fluctuating. By the end of the day, the main contract of Shanghai tin reached 144460 yuan / ton, an one-day decline of 1.95%. On the spot side, due to the decline in the futures market, the price of the spot market fell, tin prices were high a few days ago, today they were able to fall sharply, the willingness to prepare stocks downstream increased, buying interest picked up slightly, and the overall trading atmosphere of the Shanghai tin market was higher than that of a few days ago.

After the continuous consolidation of tin prices in mid-August, Shanghai and tin gradually rose in late August, reaching an one-month high of 148690 yuan / ton on September 3, but then fluctuated down. The rising tin in Shanghai has benefited from the tight supply side. The collapse of the Manxiang mining area in Myanmar's WA region on August 20 due to the rainy season has seriously affected mine production, and the rainy season is not over yet, making it difficult to repair the mine. Production in the mine is not expected to resume until at least the end of October. The reduction in tin production in Myanmar is expected to last until October, with a reduction of about 1000 metal tons per month. In addition, about 2700 tons of tin were imported in July, which was almost consumed in July and August. The domestic silver mine is under construction, and the supply of tin ore is expected to return to about 600 tons of metal in the normal plant in September. Taken together, it is expected that tin supply will be reduced by about 2000 tons in September compared with August, which may support tin prices.

In addition, on the demand side, preliminary research shows that the output of the solder industry increased slightly in August compared with July, which is related to the traditional peak season of the industry. The chemical industry is affected by foreign trade, and some enterprises have reduced their production. As solder accounts for a large proportion of downstream tin demand, overall, downstream demand is expected to increase slightly in September and October.

However, with the brief correction of the US dollar and the shift in market sentiment, the decline in the non-ferrous sector has dragged down the recent tin price, and Shanghai tin has narrowed its recent gains. In 2020, due to the epidemic situation and other factors, the tin industry chain was impacted to a certain extent, and the supply problem in the WA region of Myanmar also affected the tin market. The downstream side is full of uncertainty in the face of Sino-US trade disputes because it involves overseas business. So, what is the future trend of tin prices in the second half of the year? How to treat the market demand and supply side? Welcome to the 2020 (10th) Tin Industry chain Trading Summit to discuss the future trend of the tin market.

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