SMM net news: yesterday afternoon, the domestic futures market agricultural products plate rose sharply, apple strong limit, eggs, soybean oil rose more than 2%. Chemicals plummeted and crude oil fell more than 3%.
However, the market mood changed abruptly in the evening. Shortly after the domestic futures market opened at night, the main crude oil futures contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit the daily limit, down 8% on the day. At 11:00 at night, WTI crude oil futures fell more than ever, tumbling 9% to $36.19 a barrel on the day, the lowest since June 15. As of the close, the crude oil futures 2010 contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 8.02% at 251.00 yuan per barrel at night. WTI October crude oil futures closed down $3.01, or 7.57%, at $36.76 a barrel.
Us stocks opened sharply last night, with the Dow down 1.42%, losing the 28000-point mark, the Nasdaq down more than 3.5%, below the 11000-point mark, and the S & P 500 down 2.09%. At the close of trading this morning, the three major indexes of US stocks fell sharply, dragged down by technology stocks, and the Nasdaq led the decline of 4.11%; the S & P 500 index fell 2.78%. Among technology stocks, Tesla fell about 21%, the biggest one-day drop.
What happened when oil prices plummeted again?
For the recent continuous decline in oil prices, Haitong Futures analyst Yang an told Futures Daily that the core driving force of the recent decline in the crude oil market is the lack of bright spots on both sides of supply and demand, and signs of loosening on the supply side, causing market concern. Recently, the forward curve of international oil prices has weakened, and Saudi Arabia has also sharply reduced its discounts to Asian customers, all of which have further increased the market's worries about supply and demand, accumulated a long period of demand adjustment and began to control judgment, and pessimism continues to intensify, so oil prices have fallen continuously.
Although oil prices continue to fall in the short term under the inertia of a pullback, in fact, oil prices are not high. At present, there is ample liquidity in the financial market and great demand for asset allocation. With Brent oil approaching $40 per barrel, WTI crude oil falls below $38 per barrel, which will attract funds to buy, and low oil prices are also the best balancer for supply and demand in the crude oil market. Therefore, we believe that oil prices do not have the conditions for a sustained deep decline, this pullback should have released the main pullback space, and the room for further pullback is relatively limited. 40 US dollars per barrel is a strong support level for Brent crude oil, which deserves our continuous attention. " Yang an said.
Gui Chenxi, a crude oil researcher at CITIC Futures, believes that there are three reasons for the decline in crude oil: 1. Us stocks fell. The volume and price structure of crude oil futures began to differentiate in July. Spot discounts and monthly spreads that characterize fundamentals have weakened, net long positions in funds, which represent market sentiment, have continued to decline, while unilateral oil prices have maintained strong volatility as US stocks continue to rise to record highs. Recently, U. S. stocks fell high, financial support weakened, Synchronize triggered a pullback in oil prices. two。 Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates cut official prices. Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia announced that it had cut official export prices to Asia for the second month in a row, and this week the United Arab Emirates also slashed official export prices. Signs of a mild price war are looming. 3. Demand for oil products fell short of expectations and refinery profits remained weak. The outbreak relapsed in the United States in July and in Europe in August, leading to repeated progress in demand recovery. The refinery promotes the resumption of production so that the increment of the supply side is greater than the demand, the diesel inventory increases to an all-time high, and profits are sharply downward pressured to recover in the later stage, which further affects the demand for crude oil.
Looking to the future, Gui Chenxi said that the decline in US stocks triggered a decline in US oil, which magnified the decline in US oil to further put pressure on the US stock market downside; superimposed pre-consolidation for a long time after the technical release, if triggered a quantitative strategy to follow, there may still be room for downside in the short term. In the medium term, if the US stock market stops falling, the oil market will rebalance and oil prices may return to oscillation.
Apple hit the daily limit at the end of the day, and the mood of the bulls became more and more intense?
Yesterday, Apple futures suddenly rose sharply, up more than 6% in late trading hit the limit, the price reached a three-week high, nearly 3 days Apple futures rose more than 500 points from the low.
Kong Linqi, an analyst at Haitong Futures, said that the apple market began to pick up at the end of August, mainly because the supply of low-priced, early-ripening fruits decreased during this period, especially the low-price, medium-quality goods suitable for e-commerce sales were basically sold out, while late-maturing Fuji had not yet been listed, and the remaining high-quality merchants took advantage of this gap to report a small increase in prices, which is more common in Shandong. In addition, there are more Rain Water in Shandong coastal areas this year, and there are rotten early-ripening gala fruits in some orchards, and apples in some villages and towns in western Yantai are relatively small, and the overall quality is not very good, so the current situation in the spot market is that poor goods cannot be sold out, and high-quality goods and cold storage goods take advantage of the opportunity to increase prices.
However, this situation is not expected to last long. Red generals in Shandong began to supply one after another this month. at present, the news shows that the quality of Red generals is relatively good, and to a certain extent, it can make up for the demand during the gap period. Fuji began to appear on the market in late September, and although the output is not as good as last year, it is still maintained at about 40 million tons, basically meeting the market demand. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the situation of the National Day holiday and the storage capacity of the cold storage, because the contract will be cancelled in July next year, and if the inventory volume is larger this year, the May contract may face greater inventory pressure. " Kong Linqi said.
Wang Bo, a futures analyst in Yide, also believes that the duration of the rise is limited: "the spot aspect of Shaanxi precocious Fuji is basically over, and late-maturing Fuji is sporadically unbagged. From the ordering price, the price of late-maturing Fuji is basically the same as last year, or slightly higher than last year. The precocious Fuji transaction in Jingning area has just begun, and the price of good goods is 3.00 RMB3.50 per jin. Affected by frost in the early stage of the northwest region, production has indeed been reduced by about 30%, and it is normal for the current supply price to be slightly higher. At the end of Gala in Shandong area, Red General has not been listed in large quantities. At present, the price of Red General is about 1 yuan lower than that of previous years. From the point of view of the previous 10 contract positions in the day before the limit, the current 10 contracts hold more than 140000 positions (unilateral), and the pressure of long-short reduction is greater, which aggravates the long-short game. There are also five trading days to limit positions, last week the short side began to cash in profits to reduce positions, bulls take advantage of the time difference, yesterday increased positions rose to play a wave of short-term attack market, in order to clear the excess positions. From a fundamental point of view, the uptick in the market will not last long. "
Can the price of eggs continue to rise when the price of eggs picks up?
In early July, egg prices hit their lowest level this year. The price of eggs has continued to rise since mid-July. In August, the price of eggs in the wholesale market was 4.07 yuan per jin, up 19.01% from July. The price of eggs closed up another 2.5% yesterday.
Zhou Yimin, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Futures, said that on the spot, since the Spring Festival this year, the price of eggs has always been on the low side, and the price of eggs in producing areas once fell to around 2 yuan per jin, falling below an all-time low. In mid-late February, with the effective control of the domestic epidemic, the circulation and consumption of eggs also gradually resumed, and the price of eggs increased. However, the overall stock of laying hens is on the high side, and the consumption of downstream groups is still insufficient, and the price of eggs is still at a low level. After April, as the stock of laying hens rose and demand was flat, eggs fell all the way, and in early July, egg prices hit their lowest level this year. Egg prices have risen since mid-July, but the high stock of laying hens has led to a weak rise in egg prices. Since mid-August, egg prices were supposed to rise seasonally, but egg prices rose sluggishly and fell near the cost line again.
"in sharp contrast to the weakness of the spot, the egg futures far-moon contract has always maintained a high rising water level this year, mainly because the market expects that the amount of replenishment will be greatly reduced after the overall loss of breeding in the first half of this year. Egg supply is likely to shrink. As a result, the spot upward momentum is insufficient, and the futures price falls rapidly near the expiration of the contract to get close to the spot price. At the same time, the long-term rising water of futures gives aquaculture enterprises a better chance of hedging. Although there is a long-term loss in spot, the price given by futures is basically above the breeding cost. Aquaculture enterprises can greatly reduce losses or even turn losses into profits by using futures hedging. On the other hand, from 2017 to early 2020, egg farming experienced a two-and-a-half-year high profit cycle, and farmers can afford short-term losses. Therefore, we believe that the cycle of egg losses may be relatively long and will last until the end of the year. In the short term, the stock of laying hens in the current market is still on the high side, and the number of newly laid eggs will also be on the high side, coupled with the overall profitable egg prices in August and September, the willingness to eliminate chickens is not high, and the overall supply in the market is adequate. It is expected that spot egg prices may fall after mid-September, corresponding to futures contracts in recent months there are certain downside risks. " Monday min said.
Hou Xiaorui, a German futures analyst, believes that from a fundamental point of view, the layer stock increased in August compared with the previous month, and the rebound in the supplementary column from March to April led to an increase in the newly opened production of laying hens from August to September. The peak period of laying hens elimination is before the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the elimination age of laying hens begins in advance from late August, but there is no sign of excess Amoy. The newly opened output is less after October, and the newly opened output of 11mur01 increases gradually, but the increase is obviously lower than that of the supplementary column in April 2020. In addition, with the spot price fluctuating above and below the cost line for a long time, the elimination of chicken age will be set at 450ml 480 days. It is estimated from the time that the elimination of laying hens after September will be the supplement after June 2019, and by March 2021, the elimination of high-level laying hens in 2019 will basically end. On the whole, the layer stock column will show a trend of decreasing month by month. Near the Mid-Autumn Festival, the short-term spot is still strong, and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the spot is still in a downward trend. After the previous sharp decline in the futures market, the short-sellers in recent months have stopped the profit and left the market, and it is still possible to fall after a short-term rebound. In the long run, with the phase-out of high-level laying hens in 2019, the egg supply is decreasing month by month, and the distant moon is relatively strong.
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