Minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting on July 28th Disk: basic metals rose yesterday. Lun Aluminum closed yesterday at 1710 US dollars / ton, up 0.77%, up 13 US dollars / ton. Shanghai Aluminum's main 2009 contract rose 60 yuan / ton, or 0.42%, to 14270 yuan / ton. The dollar index fell 0.74 per cent to 93.648.
Macro aspect: 1) according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States, there are 61795 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States, with a total of 4225687 confirmed cases, 564 new deaths and 146546 deaths. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 27th, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 666.55 billion yuan in June, an increase of 11.5 percent over the same period last year, an increase of 5.5 percentage points over May. In the first half of the year, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises showed a trend of "low before and then high, from decline to rise", and the profit growth rate of more than 90% of the industry picked up in the second quarter. The central bank launched a reverse repurchase operation of 80 billion yuan today, with a net investment of 70 billion yuan due to the expiration of 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase today. 4) recently, many ministries, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, have spoken intensively, while comprehensively expounding the resilience and flexibility of China's economy, they also reveal many policy signals: a series of policies related to stabilizing investment, promoting consumption and ensuring employment will be introduced faster in the second half of the year. (lidocaine)
Fundamentals: 1) Chinalco Guinean alumina project feasibility study report reviewed by the Guinean government; Rusal announced that aluminum production in the second quarter of 2020 totaled 927000 tons, down 1.4% on a quarter-on-quarter basis; (neutral) 2) alumina: the price in the north is loose and the market is deadlocked. SMM alumina reported 2450-2480 yuan / ton in Shanxi and Henan, 2450-2500 yuan / ton in Guangxi and Guizhou, and 2450-2480 yuan / ton in Shandong. (bullish) 3) pre-baked anode: according to customs statistics, the total export volume of domestic pre-baked anode was 114000 tons in June 2020, down 12.78% from the same period last year and 30.95% from the previous month. From January to June, domestic exports of pre-baked anodes totaled 796500 tons, an increase of 23.4 percent over the same period last year. (negative) 4) Electrolytic aluminum: inventory continued to decline slightly, SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3000 tons to 699000 tons compared with the previous week. Xihang and Henan contributed mainly to the decline, while inventory in Shanghai continued to be tired. (lidocaine)
Spot aspect: the transaction of the holder is concentrated on the vicinity of 80 yuan / ton in the same month. Summary: the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in domestic social warehouses recorded a small decline yesterday, and the overall consumption of electrolytic aluminum is OK, especially in Guangdong. With the recovery of overseas economy, the import demand of electrolytic aluminum has recovered somewhat, but the possibility of extreme epidemic prevention measures taken by the United States cannot be ruled out. At present, the price of electrolytic aluminum is still supported by fundamentals, and it is expected that the price of electrolytic aluminum will fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term. We still need to pay attention to the impact of the weakening of new orders on the downstream demand side on the price of electrolytic aluminum in the future.
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