Macro Roundup (Jul 28)

SHANGHAI, Jul 28 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Gold prices soared to a new record high on Monday, while the US dollar index reached a new low not seen since September 2018, given deteriorating US-China relations and lingering fears about the coronavirus pandemic in the US and elsewhere.

Spot gold traded as high as $1,943.927 per ounce, surpassing the previous record high price set in September 2011. A broad measure of dollar positioning on Friday showed that net short positions in the greenback last week rose to the highest level since April 2018.

On Wall Street, stocks rose on Monday on hopes for another coronavirus stimulus package. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 100 points. The S&P 500 jumped 0.75%, bringing its year-to-date gain to nearly 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.7%, helped by big gains in technology darlings.

Helped by a weak dollar, oil prices edged higher on Monday, and nonferrous metals also rose, though gains were capped by rising global coronavirus cases and tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Nonferrous metals on the LME climbed across the board on Monday, recovering from last Friday’s collapses. Lead soared 2.5% to lead the gains, tin jumped 2.4%, nickel rose 1.2%, zinc climbed 1.1%, aluminium advanced 0.8% and copper gained 0.5%.

On the SHFE, nonferrous metals, except for copper, moved higher in overnight trading. Tin surged 2.1%, lead climbed 1.7%, nickel advanced 0.5%, aluminium gained 0.4% and zinc edged up 0.2%.

Tensions between the world’s two largest economies rose as the US consulate in Chengdu shut down on Monday in compliance with a retaliatory measure from Beijing, after Washington ordered the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston.

US Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Monday unveiled the Republican coronavirus relief plan. The legislation would include relief for jobless Americans, another direct payment to individuals of up $1,200, more Paycheck Protection Program small business loan funds, among other provisions. McConnell said the bill would set federal unemployment insurance at 70% of a worker’s previous wages, replacing the $600 per week which states stopped paying out this week.

The Federal Reserve starts its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, followed by an interest rate decision on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to reiterate that it will keep rates near zero for years to come, while investors will be watching to see if the US central bank indicates that it will increase its purchases of longer-dated debt and whether yield caps are likely going forward.

Data published Monday showed that profits at China’s industrial firms rose for a second straight month and at the fastest pace in over a year, adding to signs the country’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis is gaining momentum.

The statistics bureau said on Monday that profits at China’s industrial firms rose 11.5% year-on-year in June to 666.55 billion yuan ($95.27 billion) – marking the quickest profit growth since March 2019.

May marked the sector’s first monthly growth in earnings since November, before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

For January-June, industrial firms’ profits fell 12.8% year-on-year to 2.51 trillion yuan, but easing from a 19.3% dive in the first five months.

German business sentiment saw a further recovery in July, with the Ifo Institute’s business climate index on Monday climbing more than expected to 90.5 from an upwardly revised 86.3 in June.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for July will be released on Tuesday. Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting a read of 96, down from June’s read of 98.1.