[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead in Shanghai breaks through the high level of waste batteries and continues to rise in price.

2020.7.10

Summary of lead Morning meeting:

Futures market:

Overnight, Lun lead opened at 1810 US dollars / ton. In the Asian session, Lunlun lead fluctuated upward at the beginning of the session, reaching a high of 1843 US dollars / ton. Entering the European period, Lun lead fluctuated in a narrow range, focusing on the first line of 1830 US dollars, and finally closed at 1830.5 US dollars / ton, an increase of 0.83 per cent. London lead stocks rose 25 tonnes to 61725 tonnes yesterday. (lidocaine)

Overnight, Shanghai lead opened at 15135 yuan / ton. At the beginning of trading, Shanghai lead fell slightly, reaching a low of 15020 yuan / ton, then rebounded slightly, and then basically operated at 15080 yuan / ton, finally reported at 15075 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.94%. 07 contract holdings remained at 7885 lots, while warehouse receipts grew slowly, rising by just 101t to 18926 tonnes yesterday (bullish yen).

Spot fundamentals:

In the Shanghai market, Mulun lead quoted a discount of 30 yuan / ton to Pingshui for Shanghai lead 2007 contract, in the south of Jiangsu and Zhejiang market, Copper Guan lead quoted a discount of 30 yuan / ton to Shanghai lead 2007 contract, Jinli in Henan offered an average discount of 50 yuan / ton to SMM1# lead (trader), and Minshan in Henan quoted a flat price for SMM1# lead. Lead upstream, and due to the limited warehouse order, the holder price shipment, while the downstream fear of high wait-and-see, part of the need is still partial to recycled lead, the trading market is two light. In terms of recycled lead, affected by the rising price of lead, the smelter has high production enthusiasm and rising purchasing demand, but the supply of waste batteries is still tight, and the price of waste batteries maintains an upward trend. In addition, the discount of recycled refined lead has been expanded. Yesterday, the average price of recycled refined lead (including tax) to SMM1# lead is 400 yuan / ton, while some refineries have reported a discount of 450 yuan / ton. The price advantage of recycled lead is obvious, and downstream procurement mostly favors the large discount source of recycled lead.

Lead price forecast today:

Lun lead continued a strong trend, 1800 U.S. dollars stable, market risk increased, Lun lead may continue to rise. Shanghai lead has broken through the high level of the platform, has entered a new upward cycle, and is expected to continue to strengthen in the short term.

The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to rise by 100,150 yuan per ton today.