SMM Evening Comments (May 28): Shanghai base metals ended mixed, aluminium rose to two-month high

SHANGHAI, May 28 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals traded on a mixed note Thursday as investors weighed the global economic reopening against increased friction between the US and China.

Developments on US-China relations likely continued to be monitored by investors, as tensions between the two countries mount.

Copper shed 0.34%, lead lost 0.45%, zinc declined 0.58%, while aluminium continued to advance by 1.47%, tin climbed 0.59%, and nickel added 0.13%. 

The ferrous complex mostly increased as iron ore jumped 2.01%, lifted by strong demand from steel mills. Rebar went up 0.37%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.2%, while stainless steel shed 0.84%, and coke dropped 0.3%. 

China's top legislature, the National People's Congress (NPC), on Thursday held the closing meeting of its annual session. Lawmakers adopted the Civil Code and a decision to make national security laws for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

Copper: The most-traded SHFE July contract failed to break up 44,000 yuan/mt as it pulled back from an intraday high of 43,850 yuan/mt, ending the day 0.34% lower at 43,700 yuan/mt. The Antamina copper mine in Peru has resumed operations after shutting down six weeks ago following a wave of coronavirus cases. The mine is expected to resume full production in Q3 and this added to concerns about copper oversupply in the long term. The reduced inventories in China, meanwhile, underpinned copper prices. With continued support from the 20-day moving average, the contract is expected to track its LME counterpart tonight. 

Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE July contract rose to the highest level since March 9, at 13,175 yuan/mt, before it closed the day 1.47% higher at 13,155 yuan/mt. This marked the fifth consecutive day of increase. As the KDJ indicator moved higher, the contract may continue to expand its upward room tonight. 

SMM data showed that social inventories of primary aluminium ingots in China continued their steep fall this week, with aluminium billet inventories also decreasing. 

Zinc: The most-active SHFE July contract trimmed some decline from overnight but pressure from the five-day moving average and a weakened LME zinc depressed upward momentum of the contract, which finished the day 0.58% lower at 16,180 yuan/mt. Supply disruption on the mining front will be removed gradually and this is likely to see the contract testing support from 16,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Lead: The most-active SHFE July contract consolidated around the five-day moving average, ending the day 0.45% lower at 14,305 yuan/mt, following an intraday high of 14,380 yuan/mt. Tonight, support from the five-day moving average will be monitored. 

Tin: The most-liquid SHFE contract switched to the August contract, which recovered after declined, closing the day 0.59% higher at 133,670 yuan/mt. Support is seen from the five-day moving average.