[SMM Survey] backlog of orders to support downstream processing of Aluminum to maintain Stability of New Export orders in the Future

SMM, April 10, 2020:

During the epidemic period, SMM through the aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises start weekly tracking, in order to understand the most real aluminum downstream processing enterprises return to work. SMM survey samples are distributed in 12 provinces in China, a total of 41 enterprise samples, the specific distribution is as follows:

To sum up, the start of aluminum downstream leading enterprises this week showed a small decline, the overall still stable. Among them, the original aluminum processing plate in addition to the primary alloy, pre-extrusion orders to start in April can still maintain stability, the building materials industry due to export impact on small domestic demand is the current domestic aluminum processing consumption of the few bright spots. On the other hand, in terms of orders in May, the fault of export orders is about to appear, with the most obvious impact of strip and foil, which involves more exports. In the aspect of regenerated aluminum, due to the shortage of waste aluminum supply at home and abroad, it is expected that the consumption of raw aluminum will continue under the shortage of raw material supply in April. It is expected that the overall start of the aluminum processing industry next week will be stable, affected by the decline in some export orders or will decline slightly.

Specific product types:

Primary aluminum alloy: the operating rate of the top five enterprises of primary aluminum alloy this week was 61.8% higher than that of last week. Aluminum wheel factory due to the decline in domestic orders and export hindrance and other problems to reduce procurement, A356.2 month single and bulk transactions have been reduced, in order to reduce the inventory of finished products in the original alloy enterprises to reduce production at the beginning of the month. When the epidemic situation in foreign countries is under control, the domestic aluminum wheels will recover obviously after the recovery of the whole vehicle and retail end, and the short-term primary alloy enterprises will digest the inventory and have no plan to increase production.

Aluminum plate and strip: the operating rate of large plate and strip enterprises this week is basically the same as that of last week, and the overall operation situation is similar to that of last week. In terms of orders, there was a significant decline in orders at the beginning of April, and the feedback of individual enterprises was obviously less than that in March, but the backlog of some orders in the early stage could basically achieve full production in April, but considering that the epidemic situation abroad has not yet ended, it is expected that orders will be difficult to fill from May to June, and the reduction in export orders will be obvious, and output will decline to a certain extent, so there will be concern for the second quarter. In terms of finished goods inventory, although the overall level is slightly lower than last week, it is still higher than the normal level, due to the slow pick-up of end customers, and the performance of foreign customers is particularly obvious at this point. Raw material inventory, plate and strip enterprises are limited by funds and orders, the willingness to stock is not very obvious.

Aluminum cable: the operating rate of large cable companies this week is slightly lower than last week, and individual cable companies said that the production orders arranged in April were temporarily low. At present, the production orders of aluminum cable enterprises are still mainly received before the festival. Although most of the large cable factories have relatively substantial production plans in April, some enterprises still say that export orders have been affected, and customers in Southeast Asia and South America have withdrawn their orders. the overall start-up rate is lower than in the early days. In addition, the enterprise feedback, the national network UHV orders and other distribution network line orders have not yet been fully implemented to the enterprise, and the second quarter is expected to be difficult to achieve a significant increase in new orders, it is expected that bidding volume will be released in the second half of the year. Aluminum rod enterprise feedback, the recent downstream cable enterprises have signs of stock, aluminum rod orders are relatively stable.

Aluminum profile: the change of operating rate of profile enterprises is limited this week. The demand for construction profiles is actively improving, exports account for a relatively small impact is limited, strong domestic demand to a certain extent to make up for some of the losses of exports, the enterprises with abundant orders on hand can meet the production for at least one month; the demand for industrial profiles is slightly poor, dragged down by exports, orders have been reduced to varying degrees, and some industrial materials enterprises are expected to be pessimistic. Inventory, due to the overall rise in aluminum bar processing fees, some enterprises feedback raw material purchase is more difficult; in order to avoid finished product inventory backlog and other problems, profile enterprises on the terminal pick-up cycle requirements are more stringent, overdue to pay additional fees. In the short term, there is little room for the adjustment of the overall operating rate of profile enterprises, but the start of industrial profile enterprises has the risk of falling back.

Aluminum foil: the operating rate of aluminum foil enterprises this week is basically stable compared with the previous week. From a sub-product point of view, the demand for double zero foil is relatively poor, but the monthly warming, single zero foil internal and foreign trade are poor, air conditioning foil is still in the off-season, the demand is not good. In terms of orders, there is no sign of a pick-up in domestic trade orders, and the current situation of receiving orders in April is fair; however, the deterioration of overseas orders is obvious, and some countries have begun to seal off ports because of the accelerated spread of the overseas epidemic, and most of the new export orders received by aluminum foil enterprises have been delayed or cancelled. Research companies are pessimistic about exports. It is expected that the operating rate of aluminum foil enterprises will remain unchanged in April compared with March, but the overall order level will fall back due to the deterioration of exports.

Recycled aluminum alloy: the start of aluminum foil enterprises this week is down from the previous week. The fundamental reason is that the epidemic situation in foreign countries continues to worsen and exports are not smooth. Although most enterprises said that export orders had been received in May, there were still considerable difficulties in actual production and sales, mainly in the areas of arrival difficulties, delays in orders, cancellation of orders, and inability to pay. Although the domestic air-conditioning foil and other products to the traditional peak season, but considering that the products of terminal enterprises such as Rumei still rely on exports in the end, so feedback to the upstream performance of domestic demand has decreased compared with the same period last year. The reduction and expansion of foreign demand and the limited increase in domestic demand led to the reduction of the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry. Delays and cancellations in overseas orders have made some companies more cautious in docking orders. From the point of view of sub-products, due to the forgotten arrival of air-conditioning foil, the output has increased month-on-month, but affected by the overseas epidemic decreased. The proportion of single and double zero foreign trade is relatively large, and it is also greatly affected. The brazing foil is affected by the malaise of the global automobile industry, and the production is reduced obviously. Electronic foil production is good, domestic demand recovery, production scheduling has reached May. April was supposed to be a peak for aluminum foil orders in previous years, and it now seems likely that this year's peak will be delayed or disappeared.

(SMM Aluminum Group)