SMM Evening Comments (Oct 30)

SHANGHAI, Oct 30 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals, except for zinc, closed higher on Wednesday. Aluminium advanced 0.5%, nickel and lead gained 0.3%, copper increased 0.2%, and tin nudged up 0.04%.

The ferrous complex traded mixed. Rebar rose 1%, hot-rolled coil climbed 0.6%, and coking coal gained 0.3%, while coke fell 0.5% and stainless steel dipped 0.1%. Iron ore stayed flat.

Copper: The most active SHFE 1912 contract recovered from earlier losses during the daytime session, ending the trading day 0.15% higher at 47,510 yuan/mt. SHFE copper held around 47,500 yuan/mt and well above the five-day moving average, as the US dollar dipped ahead of the Fed interest rate decision. Whether SHFE copper could cling to 47,500 yuan/mt will come under scrutiny tonight.

Aluminium: The most traded SHFE 1912 contract hovered in a 30 yuan/mt range around 13,835 yuan/mt during the daytime session, holding onto overnight gains to close 0.51% higher at 13,845 yuan/mt. The unwinding of short positions primarily accounted for today’s price gain, recouping losses from the previous day. SHFE aluminium is expected to remain rangebound tonight.  

Zinc: The most active SHFE 1912 contract rallied to an intraday high of 19,170 yuan/mt in morning trade, before resistance at the upper Bollinger band forced it to ease to end at 19,105 yuan/mt, down 0.21% on the day. Weaker consumption in the spot market prompted investors to trim their long positions, leading to a decline in SHFE zinc. Investors, meanwhile, moved to later-dated contracts, suggesting that they are optimistic about the future market. Resistance at the upper Bollinger band will be closely watched tonight.   

Nickel: The most traded SHFE 1912 contract strengthened on the day, advancing 0.34% to end at 134,160 yuan/mt. Whether it could remain above the 20-day moving average will come under scrutiny tonight.

Lead: The most active SHFE 1912 contract slipped to an intraday low of 16,640 yuan/mt in morning trade, before bargain-hunting helped it claw back those losses to close the trading day 0.27% higher at 16,730 yuan/mt. SHFE lead remained in its recent range, with resistance seen from moving averages. It is likely to test support at 16,600 yuan/mt tonight, if its LME counterpart continues to retreat.

Tin: The most traded SHFE 2001 contract edged up 0.04% to end at 138,750 yuan/mt in seesaw trades. Support is seen at the 20-day moving average at 137,600 yuan/mt, while resistance is at 140,000 yuan/mt.