SMM10, March 28: today's non-ferrous metals market green thin red fertilizer, by the end of the day, Shanghai copper rose 0.15%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.07%, Shanghai zinc rose 1.68%, Shanghai lead flat, Shanghai nickel fell 0.83%, Shanghai tin rose 0.43%.
Among them zinc, Guoxin Futures said today Shanghai zinc strong rebound. Recently, Shanghai and zinc have shown a concussive rebound trend, mainly due to the gradual recovery of macro sentiment. On Saturday, there was good news from Sino-US trade. According to CCTV news reports, on the evening of October 25, the economic and trade leaders of China and the United States made their first call after a new round of consultations. China and the United States agreed to properly address their core concerns and confirm that some of the technical consultations on the text were basically completed. From a fundamental point of view, Glencore, the world's largest commodity trader, said production of copper and zinc this year would be slightly lower than previous forecasts, and the latest WMBS statistics also showed a higher-than-expected shortage, indicating that expectations that had led to a sharp fall in zinc prices this year would be revised, and that rebounding thinking would be maintained in the future if there was no significant negative macro view. It is recommended to hold more than one.
On the copper side, the recent Kangaluwi copper mine project in Zambia may restart. The Lusaka High Court issued a ruling this week that could allow the Kangaluwi copper project to take place within the border of the Lower Zambia National Park. Under Zambian law, the copper project is required to resubmit the mining application, accompanied by an environmental impact assessment report and EIA, to be submitted to the Zambian Environmental Authority for further review and decision.
On aluminium, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that China imported 114300 tons of waste aluminum in September, up 17.9 per cent from the same period last year and down 18.7 per cent from the previous month. Of these, the US was the largest supplier, with China importing 27000 tonnes of waste aluminium from the US that month, down 18 per cent from a year earlier and more than 30 per cent from the previous month. Canada followed, with China importing 14000 tonnes of waste aluminium from Canada in September, up more than 30 per cent from a year earlier.
In the black system, iron ore fell 0.08%, thread rose 0.21%, hot rolled down 0.09%, stainless steel rose 0.50%, coke fell 1.83%, coking coal fell 0.72%. Recently, the World Iron and Steel Association released the global crude steel production in September, in September 2019, the world's 64 countries included in the World Iron and Steel Association statistics of crude steel production was 151.5 million tons, down 0.3 percent from the same period last year. In addition, in the process of stopping the sintering section of Xinghua Iron and Steel in Wuan City, Handan a few days ago, the high temperature sinter caused smoke and fire in the conveyor belt, causing fire and causing casualties. Industry insiders said that the high probability of the accident is due to the sinter cold but not completely triggered a belt fire. According to the Hebei Emergency Management Department, Xinghua Iron and Steel stopped working in the sintering section on the evening of October 23 in accordance with the production restriction requirements of the environmental protection department, and an accident occurred in the process.
Crude oil rose 0.82% in the previous period. Russia's Energy Ministry said Monday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries and other oil-producing allies (OPEC+) would take into account the slowdown in U.S. oil production when they meet in December to discuss a production deal, according to the Russian news agency Tass (TASS). However, Tass quoted PavelSorokin, deputy head of Russia's energy ministry, as saying it was too early to talk about further production cuts.
As of 16:50, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:
Today's capital flow
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Brief comment of SMM analyst on Oct. 28
Copper: today's Shanghai copper main contract opened in the morning at 47550 yuan / ton, the opening is to rush the day's highest level of 47640 yuan / ton, followed by lack of market confidence, a large number of short positions, until the second quarter trading center of gravity in 47450 yuan / ton shock, afternoon opening, the center of gravity briefly in 47450 yuan / ton shock, then moved up to 47500 yuan / ton, close at 47430 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton, up 0.15%. Shanghai copper main contract 1912 position increased by 4030 hands to 228000 hands, trading volume increased by 8974 hands to 137000 hands. The Shanghai copper index increased its position by 308 hands to 542000, while trading volume increased by 20, 000 to 261000. At present, the 1911 and 1912 contracts continue to maintain the Contango structure, and the price spread has been widened to 90 yuan / tonne. Today, the overall performance of Shanghai copper is high and low, the main reason is that after the optimistic news of short-term OPEC production reduction has been digested, the market is still dominated by the weak macro market, coupled with the current obstruction of Brexit, aggravating the market risk aversion and worries about the European economy, copper prices remain stable and high. At present, Shanghai copper receiving cross star, the upper film line is too long, showing that the market selling pressure is heavy, the technical side is difficult to say good. In the evening test Shanghai copper can continue to hold 47400 yuan / ton level.
Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum main company 1912 contract opened at 13850 yuan / ton in the morning, down 13810 yuan / ton at the beginning of the session, then rebounded low, around 13825 yuan / ton wide shock, closed at 13825 yuan / ton. Intra-day aluminum prices fluctuated in the performance range, during the period of two downturns stopped at 13810 yuan / ton, closed at the small positive line, the top pressure 20 moving average, position increased by 260 to 235000 hands, trading volume decreased by 5460 to 88684 hands, daily KDJ three-line polymerization, MACD red line elongated. Although the market expectations for forward consumption are weak, short-term spot strength suppresses short-term confidence, aluminum prices are difficult to fall back quickly, and it is expected to continue to maintain interval volatility in the evening, try to explore the strength of 13800 yuan / ton gate support, and continue to pay attention to the change of long short positions and the pace of new production capacity of aluminum plants.
Lead: within the day, Shanghai lead 1912 contract opened at 16750 yuan / ton, non-ferrous metals rose rapidly at the beginning of the session, Shanghai lead followed the uplink, the high once rose to 16810 yuan / ton, and then with the weak fundamentals, the high level of Shanghai lead was once again arranged by short sellers, the low level dropped to 16655 yuan / ton, basically giving up all the gains in the day, and finally reported at 16700 yuan / ton. For domestic lead prices, gradually into the high range shock pattern, high 17000 yuan / ton, low support platform 16600 yuan / ton, but due to the weak lead fundamentals, the trend is still downward, but due to the existence of internal and external sets of open plate support, domestic lead material resistance is better than Lun lead.
Nickel: Shanghai nickel opened at 133610 yuan / ton today, the long position reduced, Shanghai nickel shock all the way down, down 131230 yuan / ton, then, slightly revised, the center of gravity around 132000 yuan / ton narrow fluctuations, finally closed at 132080 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of 1110 yuan / ton, down 0.83%, trading volume increased by 120000 hands to 957000 hands, position volume decreased 14000 to 280000 hands. Shanghai nickel closed in the small negative column, the top facing 20 EMA resistance, below there is no other moving average support, this night to pay attention to Shanghai nickel can stabilize 132000 yuan / ton level.
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