Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on October 22nd

Copper: today's Yapanlun copper opened at $5838 / ton, the center of gravity fell rapidly in the morning, as the market gradually digested the benefits of Brexit news, the center of gravity moved to around $5832 / ton, the center of gravity in the latter stage of the Asian plate remained stable. Then into the European market, after a short-term rush of $5849 / ton, LME announced that copper stocks increased by more than 2000 tons, and the uncertainty of Brexit increased, the market sentiment turned to safe-haven assets again, the copper market short entered the market actively, copper prices fell sharply, fell nearly $30 / ton in an instant, down $5813.5 / ton. As of 16: 30, Lun Copper closed down 0.48% at $5817 per tonne, with the dollar index at 97.403 and US crude oil at $53.37 per barrel. Late at night, the total number of existing home sales in the United States in September is expected to be lower than the previous figure of 5.45 million households, while the Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to be negative in October. Most of the recent US economic data have been weaker than before, adding to speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates again, and the recent low performance of the dollar has also given commodity markets an opportunity to profit. Superimposed on the recent frequent accidents at the end of the copper mine, causing the market to worry about a setback in supply, copper prices are expected to pick up again in the evening. At present, the technical surface index of Lun copper still shows a large supporting power, but it is also necessary to be aware that the opening of KDJ index is about to form a high negative turn. At night, waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil, test whether Lun copper can recover 5830 dollars / tonne position.

Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 47150 yuan / ton, followed by part of the short position, the center of gravity slightly moved down to around 47130 yuan / ton, until the end of the afternoon, the afternoon surface still maintained a stable trend, the center of gravity maintained a stable trend, the center of gravity remained stable at 47100 yuan / ton, closed at 47120 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton, up 0.11%, daily fluctuations in the range of 47150 yuan / ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Copper decreased by 218 hands to 224000 hands, and the trading volume decreased by 67000 hands to 104000 hands. The Shanghai copper index fell 7238 hands to 540000. Turnover fell by 117000 to 199000. The center of gravity of the disk has declined slightly, and the main reason is still affected by Brexit. At present, Brexit has entered the final critical period, but it is still full of resistance, the market risk is increasing, and copper prices continue to rise. At night, waiting for the outer disk to guide, test whether to continue to stand at 47100 yuan / tonne position.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 60 ~ 100 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 47140 yuan / ton ~ 47180 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 47160 yuan / ton ~ 47200 yuan / ton. The copper of Shanghai period fluctuated along a narrow range of 47100 yuan / ton. Because on the 25th of this month, involving the suspension of the tax ticket system upgrade ticket, there is still a willingness to raise the price of the monthly ticket, the morning market quotation rose by 80 ~ 100 yuan / ton, but the spot market purchase is still weak, and the holder was forced to lower the quotation price by 70% to 90%, and the transaction is still more on the sidelines. Section II trading stage, transaction blocked, the holder once again took the initiative to lower the offer, good copper quotation as low as 80 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper generally adjusted to 60 yuan / ton, wet copper concentrated quotation in the rising water 30 ~ 50 yuan / ton. The quotation of next month ticket accounts for a larger proportion in the market, with the difference between the ticket price of the current month and the ticket price of 20% 30 yuan / ton. Copper prices are high, superimposed supply is sufficient, buying is weak, the market is afraid of high sentiment, traders speculate cautiously, downstream actual consumption is weak. The share of monthly tickets will further increase tomorrow and next year, and the SMM quotation space will be enlarged. In the afternoon, the market transaction is relatively light, the market spot price is also high, restraining the market willingness to buy, so the holder is forced to lower the price, but there is still some long single demand in the market, so the room for downward adjustment is limited. In the afternoon, Pingshui copper reported 60-70 yuan / ton, good copper reported 80-90 yuan / ton, the transaction price in the range of 47100 yuan / ton-47150 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: Lun aluminum opens at $1725 per ton in the morning. In Asia, Lun aluminum opened to try to break through, quickly crossing the 5-day moving average to touch the upper 10-day moving average, high touch 1730 US dollars / ton, after the aluminum basically maintained the 5 / 10 moving average shock, as of 15: 00 aluminum reported 1726 US dollars / ton. In Europe, the center of gravity moved down and fluctuated below the 5-day moving average, hitting a low of $1722 per tonne, up from $1723.5 per tonne at 17: 34. Positions were reduced by 840 to 743833. The falling index makes the trend a little stronger, but with the above 5-10-20 daily moving average gradually converged, while breaking through the pressure of the three moving averages is greater, it is expected that in the evening Lun aluminum rose and fell back yesterday, Lun aluminum once again dormant, maintaining a narrow weak shock.

Shanghai aluminum main force 1912 contract opened in the morning at 13775 yuan / ton. After the opening, due to the sharp fall in Shanghai aluminum yesterday, the opening low touched 13755 yuan / ton after a short entry, Shanghai aluminum prices slowly rose, after the short trend profit closing position, Shanghai aluminum continued to move up, to the afternoon above Shanghai aluminum break through the 5 / 10 moving average of 13830 yuan / ton. The last high led to a much shorter profit, closing at 13795 yuan / ton. The position increased by 1116 to 241948, and the Shanghai Aluminum Index increased by 7964 to 693186. At present, Shanghai Aluminum is still facing the contradiction between the current consumption and the decline of forward cost and the increase of supply pressure. It is expected that the Shanghai aluminum multi-short game will be intensified in the evening, the center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum will move up slightly, and the shock will run near the 5 / 10 moving average.

Aluminum period of the month before noon to maintain the interval shock. The monthly quotation in Shanghai Wuxi market is between 13920-13940 yuan / ton, the spot price is 40 yuan / ton lower than yesterday, the price difference between next month and that month is less than 20 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Hangzhou is 13930-13950 yuan / ton. As a result of the upgrading of the VAT system in Wuxi, Shanghai, which began on the 25th of the month, most traders need to settle in advance, the invoice issued that month is slightly deficient, the holder's willingness to ship is not strong, and the shipment is further converged after 11: 00. although middlemen have a strong willingness to receive goods, it is more difficult to conclude transactions, and spot prices maintain a high level of rising water. Downstream manufacturers today a small number of goods, some downstream although there is a willingness to receive goods, but in view of the above invoice problems, the holder does not ship much, the actual transaction is not much. On the whole, the overall transaction in East China today is OK, although there is a slight stalemate, but it is mainly affected by short-term financial settlement factors. In the afternoon, the center of gravity of aluminum floated, the middleman still received the goods, but the shippers did not ship much, a small number of shippers quoted in the vicinity of 13920 yuan / ton, the disk rose 50-60 yuan / ton, very few transactions.

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at $2209 / ton, initially dragged down by Shanghai lead weakness, Lun lead shock downward, low to $2197 / ton, $2200 once lost, into the European period, Lun lead once again showed rising toughness, low rose and rose to $2220 / ton, as of 16: 40, Lun lead reported at $2217.5 / ton. Lead technical graphics guide a unilateral upward trend, after a gradual stabilization of US $2200, short-term lead has a higher inertia, focusing on overseas lead changes and LME lead discount changes in the near future.

Within days, the Shanghai lead 1911 contract opened at 17030 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, the Shanghai lead high level quickly dived downward, to a certain extent, short lead gradually changed from the initial differences to the present more consistent, Shanghai lead in the short selling pressure, low to 16870 yuan / ton, after Shanghai lead stabilized, near the close, some speculative funds sneaked into the market at the end of the day, gambling high in the evening, Shanghai lead reported at 16945 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton, down 0.41%. Positions were reduced by 872 to 48842. The trend of Shanghai lead deviates from overseas, the internal and external price comparison is further enlarged, it is expected that the external strength and internal weakness will continue, and there is the possibility of further downward revision in the short term, so we still maintain the view of selling short.

Shanghai market Jinsha, Mu Ron lead 16880-16890 yuan / ton, the 1911 contract discount 30-20 yuan / ton, the south 1689016910 yuan / ton, the 1911 contract discount 20 yuan / ton to the flat water quotation. Lead continued to decline, and the spot market supply is abundant, recycled lead to maintain deep discount quotation, primary lead shipments generally frustrated, downstream do not hold optimistic expectations for the future, more cautious mining on demand, market transactions have not improved for the time being.

Guangdong market South China lead 16875 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat quotation; southern storage south 16850 yuan / ton, 1911 contract discount 60 yuan / ton; lead price shock downward, recycled primary price difference maintained at 500-600 yuan / ton, downstream is still preferred to buy recycled refined lead, primary lead market trading has been squeezed. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters are mainly long single transactions, Jinli 16725-16775 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 100-150 yuan / ton quotation. Lead prices are weak, holders actively ship, affected by the impact of recycled lead prices, the primary market transactions are bleak. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16825-16845 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 to 30 yuan / ton quotation (traders); Jiangxi copper industry 16875 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat quotation; Yunnan Zhenxing 16575 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 300 yuan / ton. Lead price shock downward, downstream consumption is light, the overall transaction is in the doldrums.

Zinc: zinc opened at US $2468.5 / ton in Geneva, which fell slightly by US $2461 / ton, and then steadily rose, broke through the suppression of the daily average, and ran around the front line of US $2470 / ton, close to the European trading session. With the reduction of short positions, Lun Zinc supported a steady rise in the daily average line, touching a high of US $2484 / ton, a small drop in finishing. By 17: 02, Lun Zinc closed at US $2480 / ton, up 11 US dollars / ton. An increase of 0.45%. Geneva zinc temporarily closed four Lianyang, the overall operation around Brin Road on track, the overseas back structure has not narrowed, inventory still fell, overseas supply contradictions are more significant, or give zinc prices a certain support. Pay attention to the suppression of Brin Road at night.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 18935 yuan / ton, early in the day Shanghai zinc around the daily average line 18950 yuan / ton finishing operation, then short into the market, Shanghai zinc diving down 18865 yuan / ton, then 20 moving average support strength appeared, Shanghai zinc found support, concussion upward to 18920 yuan / ton first line, around the daily average narrow range shock operation, operating range not more than 20 yuan / ton, closed down 18930 yuan / ton, down 45 yuan / ton, Trading volume decreased by 99062 hands to 146000 hands, and positions decreased by 232 hands to 196000 hands. Within the day Shanghai zinc received a bald small negative line, with the shadow line under the 5th and 10th moving average adhesion support strength, KDJ three-line adhesion turning head straight, showing that the Shanghai zinc upward downward kinetic energy is weak, the overall maintenance interval arrangement operation, the Shanghai zinc holding position in Shanghai drops slightly within the day, mostly short, indicating that under the improvement of consumption, the short confidence weakens, and the 10-day moving average support is observed at night.

Shanghai Zinc mainstream transaction in 189801920 yuan / ton, Shuangyan, Huize transaction in 19000-19030 yuan / ton; Shuangyan, Huize reported 120-140 yuan / ton in November, Shuangyan and Huize reported 120-140 yuan / ton in November; Shuangyan and Huize reported 120-140 yuan / ton in November; Shuangyan and Huize reported 120-140 yuan / ton in November; 18910-18950 yuan / ton in Shuangyan and Huize. In the first trading session, the morning holder raised the water price quotation to the 1911 contract by 120-130 yuan / ton, the market mainstream quotation to the SMM net average price discount 5 yuan / ton, but the transaction is few, the spot rising water is reduced to 1911 liter water 120 yuan / ton; in the second trading period, the zinc price continues the concussion market, holds the goods to further lower the rising water quotation, to the 1911 contract rises 110-120 yuan / ton; the second trading period, the zinc price continues the concussion market, holds the goods further reduces the rising water quotation, to the 1911 contract rises 110-120 yuan / ton; Entering this week, the market quotation is divided into the current monthly ticket and the next monthly ticket quotation, the ordinary zinc brand price difference between the monthly ticket is 20 yuan / ton, the trading market is general today, the market activity is slightly worse, the downstream enterprises are mainly wait-and-see today, the purchasing mood is not high, the overall market transaction is light.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18850-18910 yuan / ton, the quotation is concentrated in Shanghai zinc 1912 contract discount 30-10 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount maintained at 120 yuan / ton yesterday. Refinery shipments are normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. In the morning, the monthly ticket is concentrated in the discount of 10 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, and the monthly ticket is concentrated in the discount of 20-30 yuan / ton to the 12 contract, the transaction atmosphere of the market is OK, and the trader receives the goods actively. Entering the second trading period, the market transaction is concentrated in the next month ticket to the 12 contract paste 30 yuan / ton, the trader trades positively, the downstream purchase also contributes to the certain transaction volume, the overall transaction situation is better than yesterday. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18850-18910 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market is 18950-20370 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction of ordinary brands is 18950-19030 / ton, the contract for 1911 is about 80-150 yuan / ton, and the rising water in Tianjin market is narrowed from 50 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the circulation of goods has changed slightly. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated in the vicinity of 130-150 yuan / ton for 11 contract, and the quotation for ordinary brand source is about 80120 yuan / ton for 11-liter water. The plate is slightly lower than yesterday, rising water is also loose, high-priced brands from the beginning of the 11 contract rose 150 yuan / ton to about 130 yuan / ton, but some of the lower reaches of Hebei or due to environmental restrictions lead to more cautious, buying intention is still weak. Overall, today's deal continues yesterday's light trend. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in 18950-19030 yuan / ton, and Zi Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18900-18980 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of US $16730 / ton today, the Asian session generally showed an upward trend, reaching a maximum of US $16820 / ton. After the opening of the European market, at the beginning of the session to maintain a high level of consolidation after a rapid decline, erasing all the gains in the Asian session, as of 17: 00, Lunxi's latest price of $16680 / ton, showing a small negative line, the physical part is located near the 10-day, 40-day, 60-day moving average, and is expected to be supported below the 20-day moving average of $16500 / ton. In the near future, we can pay attention to the changes in crude oil stocks in API last week in the United States (10,000 barrels).

Shanghai tin main force 2001 contract last night after the opening of 138030 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day by the short force guide down to the night low of 137410 yuan / ton, then Shanghai tin returned to the daily average line 137700 yuan / ton after maintaining the horizontal consolidation situation. After the opening of 137870 yuan / ton in early trading today, it continued the trend of last night's trading, still maintained the horizontal arrangement near the daily average, and finally closed at 137800 yuan / ton, down 137800 yuan / ton, down 0.13%, 20486 hands in trading volume and 40224 hands in position volume, an increase of 12 hands. Shanghai tin overall maintained a low level today, Shanghai tin is expected to support below the 20-day moving average of 137000 yuan / ton.

Spot market, today's mainstream transaction price 136800-138500 yuan / ton, the actual existence of part of the market 136000-136500 yuan / ton near the low price source. Smelter quotation today still maintains a relatively strong state, the actual shipment has increased compared with yesterday, mainly due to some downstream enterprises to buy a small pick-up. Due to the existence of low-price supply in the market, some traders in Shanghai are more suitable for bargain replenishment, and downstream enterprises have also purchased goods. Shanghai tin spot market today the overall transaction atmosphere is general. Shanghai tin 2001 contract set Yunxi Shengshui 800 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word flat water-discount 200 yuan / ton, small brand discount 600700 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Lunni opened at $16085 a tonne today. After opening, Lunni rose $16150 / tonne, then fell quickly to $16050 / tonne, a line of support and a narrow range of shocks. Before noon, Lunni explored the $16100 / tonne level and fell back under pressure, with a narrow range of fluctuations in the first line of $16050 / tonne at noon. In the afternoon, Lunni swung up to $16095 / tonne at 16: 30, up $15 / tonne, or 0.06 per cent, from the previous day's settlement price, with volume down 4976 hands to 3965 hands and positions minus 421 to 277848 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in Yang Cross, above the pressure Bool line on the orbit, below the $16000 / ton pass temporarily supported, tonight focused on Shanghai nickel can hold the $16000 / ton level. At night, focus on the annualized total number of existing home sales in the United States in September (10,000 households).

Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened today at 126630 yuan / ton, after the opening, Shanghai nickel shock downward, to 125600 yuan / ton line to get support, a small rebound upward repair, to the daily average near the pressure, down again. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel explored many times, all under pressure daily averages, broke through, the center of gravity around 125800 yuan / ton narrow range shock, finally closed at 125690 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day down 1810 yuan / ton, down 1.42%, trading volume decreased by 325000 hands to 735000 hands, position increased by 358 hands to 375676 hands. Shanghai nickel closed in the small negative line, fell under the Boll line under the track, there is no other support below, this evening concerned about whether Shanghai nickel can hold 125000 yuan / ton integer barrier.

Today, Russian nickel is 100 yuan higher than Shanghai nickel 1911 to 200 yuan / ton, and Jinchuan nickel is generally 400-500 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai nickel 1911 contract. The rising water in Jinchuan, Russia is generally lower, mainly due to the recent large price difference between Shanghai nickel and Wuxi nickel. Wuxi nickel was about 10,000 lower than Shanghai nickel on Monday, stimulating steel mills to purchase nickel beans without tin plates, and the demand for nickel plates has been significantly suppressed. Today, the nickel price opened lower, Wuxi and Shanghai nickel price difference has been repaired, but it is still more than 7000 yuan / ton, nickel bean transaction is better than nickel plate, but because the mainstream traders quoted nickel in Shanghai, the Shanghai spot market trading is very light. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 129500 yuan / ton, 1000 yuan / ton higher than yesterday. Nickel prices fluctuate around the daily moving average in the afternoon, market sentiment continues in the morning, transactions continue to be weak.