SMM forecast: it is estimated that there is no difference in the ex-factory price of rebar in the middle of October, that is, the third-grade snail (ex-factory price 3870 yuan / ton) is adjusted, the cost of East China Kuti is 3820 yuan / ton, and the factory cost is 3770 yuan / ton.
Fundamental analysis:
Supply side: supply pressure is gradually emerging. On the one hand. In order to ensure air quality in the early stage of National Day, iron and steel enterprises all over the country have opened the "production restriction mode" one after another. However, according to SMM research, in addition to Hebei Province iron and steel enterprises production reduction is more prominent, other steel enterprises in other parts of the reduction is relatively limited, the overall production reduction is less than expected. On the other hand, after the end of the National Day, various localities cancelled the emergency measures of severe air pollution, and iron and steel enterprises resumed production one after another. In addition, it is worth noting that the north material southward has now been opened, so as a whole, the supply pressure in East China will be gradually prominent.
Demand side: the post-festival market forecast inventory data is not ideal, leading to the terminal bias to wait and see, take goods more carefully, suppress spot prices, Hangzhou spot prices fell 30 yuan / ton to 3790 yuan / ton today. But in the peak season, building materials rigid demand is still there, rush to replenish the demand still needs to be released.
From the fundamental point of view, to mid-October, the demand side is still supported, but the supply increment will gradually appear, during the National Day inventory accumulation, the market mentality is not optimistic, so during this period the spot price rise confidence is insufficient, mostly to shock. In addition, Shagang currently has a slight accumulation of 210000 tons in the thread factory, but October futures delivery is just around the corner, and the proportion of spot orders has been reduced to 30 percent discount. taken into account, the steel mill has no inventory pressure. Therefore, the ten-day steel mill has a high probability of flat offer.
In terms of making up for gaps:
According to SMM iron and steel data, the average selling price of sand steel resources in Hangzhou is about 3800 yuan / ton, and the loss per ton of steel is 20 yuan / ton. According to the transaction price of 3790 yuan / ton in Hangzhou today, the loss per ton of steel is 30 yuan / ton. This ten days loss is small, and considering that most of this ten days are in the National Day holiday, some traders do not ship goods, so this ten days steel mill probability is not without make up the difference.
In terms of cost:
According to the calculation of SMM iron and steel data model, according to the calculation of 94.3 US gold mine, the thread cost of long process steel plant is about 3339 yuan / ton (excluding financial cost), and the thread profit is 380.92 yuan / ton. Data as of today, September steel mill thread average profit of 376.13 yuan / ton.
Order ratio:
Order ratio: 2019 Zhongtian 10-1 planned quantity, 10% discount on thread (last 10% discount), 10% discount on wire rod and plate screw (10% discount on previous period), 10-1 planned quantity of Yonggang, 75% discount on thread (15% discount on previous period), 9.5% discount on wire rod and plate screw (10% discount on previous period), 30% discount on planned thread volume in October (10% discount last month)
