[SMM Analysis] what is the current level of copper stocks in the world?

SMM, 20 Sept.

Global copper inventory is now at a low level, domestic inventory is particularly tight, supporting spot strength, domestic contracts between the back structure, spot discount is also all the way stronger.

The world's three largest exchanges and bonded warehouse copper stocks began to decline in the second quarter, but in previous years the total inventory also began to go to the warehouse from the second quarter. Total inventories have been below last year's levels so far this year, with overall inventories at historically low levels of about 88 per cent in the same period last year.

The overall performance of the domestic treasury has declined since April. Since the second quarter, the smelter has been centrally overhauled and refined copper production has declined, showing a continuous state of de-warehousing. However, since July, entering the off-season of consumption, demand has decreased, but the smelter has maintained a high production rhythm, a small amount of accumulated inventory appeared in China, and before the deadline, the overall domestic social inventory was higher than that in previous years. It was 120% in the same period last year.

But bonded area inventories have been falling since May and are now just 310000 tonnes, up from 78.5 per cent in the same period last year. Bonded warehouse to Hong Kong supply is less, in the case of import profit window open, the subsequent import into the domestic supply volume is limited.

LME inventories, on the other hand, have continued to climb after several deliveries this year, with a small decline since August, but overall inventories are still at a relatively all-time high of about 133 per cent in the same period last year.

COMEX inventories have rebounded slightly recently, but they are still only about 24 per cent in the same period last year.

Overall, the total global inventory is now low, relatively low in history, and into September, consumption has improved, at the same time, the market is optimistic about late consumption expectations, tight inventory will support spot prices, especially at home, the expansion of back structure between support contracts, as well as spot discount strength.