[June 18 SMM lead internal morning meeting record]

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that the Office of the United States sweater Representative began a seven-day hearing on Monday to solicit opinions on levying tariffs on another US $300 billion worth of goods exported to the United States. According to the schedule, the hearing will end on the 25th of this month. The tariff increase will be formally implemented as soon as July 2 at the earliest. It is obvious that the US side is doing so to exert more pressure on our country.

Prior to the escalation of the Sino-US woolen war in May, China's holdings of US bonds fell to a two-year low in April, with total holdings of Treasuries falling by $7.5 billion to $1.11 trillion, according to the US Treasury.

After talks between Russia and Iran, OPEC+ is still unable to finalize the next session, leaving the market in a state of growing uncertainty a few weeks before the expiration of OPEC+ 's production cuts, and crude oil could fall further if no agreement can be reached on further production cuts. Saudi energy minister said OPEC+ plans to maintain supply restrictions to balance the market;

The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the British Financial Conduct Supervision Authority issued a joint announcement on the 17th, approving in principle the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange to carry out Shanghai Stock Exchange business, the Shanghai Stock Exchange officially started, the initial stage, the Shanghai Stock Connect cross-border funds to implement total quota management; follow-up according to the operation of Shanghai Stock Exchange and market demand, the total quota and the balance of the above assets can be adjusted.

The central bank carried out a 14-day reverse repo operation of 150 billion yuan on the open market yesterday, due to the expiration of 30 billion yuan of reverse repo yesterday, with a net investment of 120 billion yuan on the same day.

This week focused on the Fed's June rate meeting, keeping a close eye on the latest language at the meeting and, more importantly, whether a rate cut will be announced at this meeting. Already, some research institutions predict that the Fed will announce its first rate cut of the year at this meeting, although most market participants expect the first rate cut to take place in July. If the Fed does announce a rate cut at its June meeting, it will be an important short-term positive for financial markets, sparking a rebound in global financial markets.

Fundamentals:

Shanghai lead continuous consolidation, coupled with the delivery of time value, some holders shipping enthusiasm is slightly reduced, the market quotation has been little discount, among them, the Shanghai market Mulun lead to 1907 contract flat water to liter water 30 yuan / ton quotation, southern lead to 1907 contract water 30 50 yuan / ton quotation, Jinsha lead to 1907 contract water 50 yuan / ton quotation, and the primary lead refinery bulk single mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead average price 50 yuan / ton to flat water; In terms of recycled lead, the shipment of refined lead factory has not seen obvious improvement, and the average price of SMM1# lead is at least 100yuan / ton factory, otherwise it is difficult to ship, therefore, the purchase of raw material reduced lead also maintains a cautious attitude; downstream cautious wait and see, some large storage enterprises are basically based on long single procurement, bulk single market transactions are not light.

Lead price:

Lun lead high slowly down, Brin belt on the rail pressure, short-term attention to the support of the middle rail; Shanghai lead low closing Sanlianyang, short-term attention to the upper 16300 yuan / ton platform pressure, if the amount of breakthrough, or break the pattern of low shock;

The price of SMM1# lead is expected to rise 100 yuan to 150 yuan per ton today.