SMM Evening Comments (Mar 19)

SHANGHAI, Mar 19 (SMM) – SHFE base metals, except for lead, closed higher on Tuesday. Nickel rose some 1.9%, aluminium climbed close to 1%, copper and zinc gained about 0.3% with tin nudging up.

The ferrous complex traded mixed. Coke dropped over 1% and coking coal lost some 0.5% while rebar advanced 0.3% and iron ore increased by about 0.2%. Hot-rolled coil stayed flat.

Copper: The most traded SHFE copper May contract rebounded during the day, paring overnight losses to end 0.31% higher at 49,330 yuan/mt. This helped it stand above five- and 10-day moving averages and shortened the MACD green bar. The contract is expected to try to stand firmly above the middle Bollinger band at 49,380 yuan/mt tonight.

Aluminium: The most liquid SHFE aluminium May contract extended overnight gains during the day to end 1% higher at 13,730 yuan/mt, above all moving averages. Anticipation of consumption recovery accounted for the gains in SHFE aluminium. The contract is expected to hang on above the five-day moving average tonight.

Zinc: The most active SHFE zinc May contract recovered from overnight losses to close the trading day 0.28% higher at 21,660 yuan/mt as a jump in its LME counterpart drove shorts to cover positions. The contract is likely to try to shrug off resistance at the five-day moving average tonight.

Nickel: As the US dollar continued to weaken and oil prices climbed, the most traded SHFE nickel May contract saw its gains accelerate in the last trading hour of the session. It rose 1.93% on the day, the most among SHFE base metals, and ended at 102,290 yuan/mt. Its KDJ lines converged with a shorter MACD green bar. The contract is expected to continue to test the 20-day moving average tonight.

Lead: As shorts aggressively loaded up their bets, the most liquid SHFE nickel May contract fell to a nearly three-week low of 16,800 yuan/mt during the day. It finished the day 0.94% lower at 16,840 yuan/mt. The contract is likely to again test support below tonight.

Tin: As shorts took profits, the most active SHFE tin May contract pared earlier losses to end at a day-high of 146,900 yuan/mt, up 0.06% on the day. The contract remains below all moving averages with support at 146,000 yuan/mt.