Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-6-30)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 30 (SMM) – China’s official PMI in June, US annualized core PCE goods price index and University of Michigan’s final June CCI will be eyed today. Base metals mostly closed with gains overnight, but some of them fell at the end of trading, reflecting great pressure. They may diverge more noticeably today.

China’s official PMI in June may slow from May, but will remain on the rise. Upward momentum was dampened in June, with sluggish sales in property market and lower import index and purchases.

 SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Jun. 30, 2017)

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said after FOMC meeting in June the short-term paleness of inflation will not slow Fed’s rate hike progress. But oil prices fell in May, while US annualized CPI has been falling over the past few months. As such, US annualized PCE goods price index and annualized core PCE are expected to fall further, which have been falling for 2 months in a row. This will threaten the US dollar.

US Treasury Secretary said this morning the Congress will take measures on the debt ceiling issue before August, and make full efforts to complete tax reform in 2017.

Libya will reportedly restart exploitation at the Al Majid oilfield on Saturday, whose capacity is 5,000 barrels per day. It has been closed for 8 months due to political turmoil. NYMEX August oil thus fell slightly.