SMM Zinc Market Morning Review (2015-6-18)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 18 (SMM) – LME zinc prices opened at USD 2,095/mt then fell to a two-month low of USD 2,074/mt, and closed at USD 2,087/mt, down USD 8/mt or 0.38%. Trading volumes increased 1,253 to 10,163 lots, and total positions declined over 10,000 to 288,000. LME zinc inventories grew 4,675 to 472,150 mt.

SHFE 1508 zinc contract prices opened at RMB 16,000/mt Wednesday evening, then dropped to RMB 15,830-15,870/mt, and closed at RMB 15,845/mt, down RMB 160/mt or 1%. Trading volumes increased 24,340 to 50,464 lots, and total positions declined 306 to 120,000.

The Fed’s statement at its policy meeting was more dovish. Meanwhile, the Fed lowered its forecast of this year’s economic growth and average interest rate next year. Two Fed officials are not expecting an interest rate hike this year, and other five officials hope the Fed will raise interest rate by 0.25 percentage point. There are also other five officials hoping to raise interest rate by 0.5 percentage point. However, there was only one Fed official that hoped interest rate will be increased by 0.25 percentage point in March. Seven other officials hoped to up interest rate by 0.5 percentage point. Average interest rate expectation for 2016 and 2017 was also lowered. The forecast of the US growth in 2015 was lowered from 2.3%-2.7% to 1.8 %-2%, and expectations of unemployment rate were up from 5.0-5.2% in March to 5.2-5.3%. This pushed the US dollar index down 0.7%, falling to a record low over the past month.

It was reported European Central Bank raised the ceiling for Emergency Liquidity Assistance for Greece from EUR 83 billion to EUR 84.1 billion, and the ceiling has been increased by EUR 23 since February. However, it is still uncertain whether the ongoing negotiation on Greek debt issue will reach an agreement.

In addition, the EU prolonged sanctions on Russian by six months Wednesday until next January.

US stocks rose across the board. European stocks mostly dropped. Asian stocks markets were mixed. LME base metals prices followed their own trends.

LME zinc prices are expected to hover between USD 2,075-2,105/mt today. SHFE 1508 zinc contract prices will fluctuate between RMB 15,800-15,950/mt, with spot premiums of RMB 0-30/mt over SHFE 1508 zinc contract prices.