Spot lithium carbonate prices continued to decline this week. The futures market performed weakly, with the price range of the most-traded LC2609 contract fluctuating downward from 178,000-182,100 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 157,600-167,600 yuan/mt, hitting a mid-week low of 157,600 yuan/mt, with a weekly decline of approximately 10.7%. Overall open interest decreased, and market sentiment was bearish.
Market transactions exhibited a divergent pattern of "upstream holding prices firm and holding back from selling, downstream dip-buying," while actual transactions maintained a certain level of activity. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed a passive attitude toward spot order shipments, with sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling still prevailing. Only some enterprises that had hedged at higher levels earlier were able to close a small number of spot orders with downstream buyers or traders. On the downstream material plants side, June production schedules stayed high with demand continuing to grow. Supported by rigid demand, some enterprises maintained dip-buying and stockpiling for rigid needs. As prices continued to fall, some enterprises adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with purchase willingness and target prices adjusted downward in tandem. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions maintained a certain level of activity.
Supply side, production increased, and industry chain inventory changes diverged significantly. Lithium carbonate production increased this week, mainly due to the successive production resumptions of spodumene processing lines that had previously undergone maintenance. The recycling segment and salt lake segment maintained stable production, while the lepidolite segment experienced minor production fluctuations due to raw material supply issues. In terms of inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants saw slight destocking this week as long-term contract orders were delivered in a concentrated manner at the beginning of the month, coupled with some resumed production lines not yet operating at full capacity; downstream material plants saw inventory buildup as long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials arrived successively at the beginning of the month, combined with dip-buying spot orders; traders saw destocking as downstream buyers purchased as needed.
Looking ahead, spot lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain an in the doldrums pattern in the short term, but downside room is limited. Supply side, the pace of Zimbabwean lithium ore arrivals at ports and the progress of production resumptions at Jiangxi mines are key variables going forward. Demand side, downstream production schedules in June stay high, and rigid demand support persists. Short-term lithium prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. It is recommended to closely monitor warrant inflection points, the pace of Zimbabwean lithium ore arrivals at ports, and the actual fulfillment of downstream production schedules.
