Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,015/mt. Throughout the day, LME lead continued to hold up well, trading mostly in the range of $2,010-2,020/mt. However, during the night session, the Middle East ceasefire agreement saw renewed turbulence, and LME lead reversed sharply toward the close, nearly falling below $2,000/mt, ultimately closing at $2,012/mt, up 0.02%. Overall, the LME lead trading center shifted lower compared to the previous day.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,565 yuan/mt. After the opening, SHFE lead nearly replicated the previous trading day's night session movement, consolidating around 16,600 yuan/mt for most of the session before dropping rapidly toward the close. SHFE lead ultimately closed at 16,555 yuan/mt, down 0.09%. Open interest stood at 63,692 lots, a decrease of 1,304 lots from the previous trading day.
On the macro front:
According to foreign media, Iran planned to suspend communications with the US through intermediaries, protested the Israeli military's expanded operations in Lebanon, and planned to completely block the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump stated that all hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah would cease immediately, that negotiations with Iran were "advancing rapidly," that no message of Iran suspending negotiations had been received, and that a US-Iran deal could be reached within a week to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Lebanese Presidential Office stated that Hezbollah had committed to ceasing strikes on Israel. The Israeli Prime Minister stated that the Israeli military would continue operations in southern Lebanon as planned. Additionally, the US May ISM Manufacturing Index beat expectations, rising to 54, a four-year high and the fifth consecutive month of expansion.
:
Yesterday in the spot lead market, SHFE lead pulled back after rising, and suppliers shipped along with the market. In particular, cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters saw increased supply, with most suppliers actively making shipments. Mainstream origin quotations were at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, while some minor brands were quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt. Secondary lead side, smelters' sentiment to hold prices firm eased, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of -25~0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, while premiums of 50-75 yuan/mt persisted in some regions. Downstream enterprises still mainly purchased as needed, with some primarily using new-month long-term contracts for procurement, while others purchased as needed. Spot order market transactions were weak.
Inventory: As of June 1, LME lead inventory stood at 313,950 mt, a decrease of 50 mt from the previous trading day. SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory totaled 57,345 mt, an increase of 199 mt from the previous trading day. SMM lead ingot social inventory decreased by 1,600 mt compared to May 28.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
The US-Iran ceasefire negotiations continue to advance, but significant uncertainties remain, and risk-averse sentiment in the market is strong. Production at China's primary lead and secondary lead smelters gradually recovered, and the lead-acid battery market remained in off-season, with downstream enterprises only purchasing as needed. Combined with the phased increase in lead ingot supply, the declining trend in lead ingot social inventory was expected to slow down, and the risk of inventory buildup could not be ruled out. On the other hand, the tight supply pattern of lead concentrates and scrap batteries remained unchanged, and secondary lead losses remained one of the main factors constraining the increase in lead ingot supply. Lead prices were expected to continue to consolidate.
Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
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