SMM May 21 update:
This week, trading activity among China's aluminum fluoride enterprises turned sluggish, with aluminum fluoride prices holding steady. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 11,480-12,000 yuan/mt; cryolite prices remained stable, with SMM cryolite quoted at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt.
Raw material side: Prices of core raw materials for aluminum fluoride diverged, while overall cost support remained relatively firm. This week, delivery-to-factory prices of 97% fluorite powder in China trended downward, with mainstream transactions concentrated at 3,300-3,500 yuan/mt. Low-priced sources in the north dipped to around 3,100 yuan/mt, with regional price spreads remaining pronounced. Supply side, operating rates at mines in major northern producing areas rebounded steadily, domestic spot supply continued to increase, and Mongolian imported fluorite cargoes kept arriving at ports and flowing into the market, further easing overall resource supply. Under these circumstances, resistance to transactions at high quoted prices intensified. Demand side, a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailed among downstream industries, with insufficient follow-through on new orders. Downstream producers mainly focused on executing previously contracted orders, and actual trading activity in the spot market remained weak. Although the recent rise in hydrofluoric acid prices provided some positive sentiment for the fluorite market, coupled with delayed resumption of operations at Zhejiang mining areas and minor support from low inventory levels in certain regions, ample overall market supply combined with sluggish end-user procurement demand meant that fluorite powder prices were expected to remain slightly in the doldrums in the short term. Aluminum hydroxide prices edged down slightly, with the current SMM weighted average price at 1,651 yuan/mt, down 0.30% from last Thursday. The sulphuric acid market continued to rise. Currently, raw material sulphur circulation remained tight with prices continuing to climb. Supply side, some enterprises underwent maintenance shutdowns, tightening supply, while demand gradually weakened. Overall, sulphuric acid prices hovered at highs, with the market remaining relatively strong. In summary, prices of core raw materials for aluminum fluoride diverged, the industry's comprehensive cost center fluctuated at highs, and production pressure on enterprises remained difficult to alleviate.
Supply side, the negative cycle of rigid high costs — deep losses — low operating rates continued. This week, raw material prices diverged, with fluorite pulling back slightly while sulphuric acid remained firm. Comprehensive costs stayed elevated, with widespread losses across the industry intensifying. Enterprise maintenance and flexible production increased, with the industry operating rate remaining at a low level of around 40%, limiting effective incremental supply. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity remained stable at high levels, providing rigid floor demand for aluminum fluoride. However, aluminum enterprises' procurement was mainly limited to restocking for essential needs while pushing for lower prices, with no additional incremental demand for the time being.
Brief comment: This week, aluminum fluoride raw material trends diverged, with comprehensive costs staying high and continuously squeezing enterprise profit margins. The industry continued under the triple pressure of "high costs, low profits, and low operating rates," making it difficult to boost production enthusiasm. The market currently lacked clear directional guidance, with a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream remaining stagnant. Transactions relied solely on rigid demand support, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment pervaded the market. Prices were expected to remain stable in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs, as well as marginal adjustments in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.
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