Since 2026, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have severely disrupted Indonesia's sulphur imports. Sulphur (CIF Indonesia) prices surged from 563 yuan/mt at the beginning of the year to the current quoted price of 1,175 yuan/mt, an increase of over 108%. Sulphur is a core auxiliary material for Indonesia's nickel hydrometallurgy (HPAL) production of MHP, with a unit consumption of 10-12 mt per mt Ni. Against this backdrop, directly importing sulphuric acid to replace the acid-making process has become a practical consideration for Indonesian nickel enterprises.
I. China's Export Ban: The Largest Supply Source Cut Off
China is the world's largest sulphuric acid exporter. In 2025, China exported approximately 4.649 million mt of sulphuric acid. About 62% of Indonesia's imported sulphuric acid came from China. In 2025, China's sulphuric acid exports to Indonesia reached 670,000 mt, more than doubling from 2024. Indonesia's imports from South Korea and Japan declined sharply by 40% and 65% respectively, with China effectively filling the gap and consolidating its position as the largest supply source.
In Q1 2026 (before the ban), China's total sulphuric acid exports were 528,000 mt, down 49.8% YoY; exports to Indonesia were only 103,000 mt, down approximately 76% YoY, as the ban had already been preheated through quota tightening. From May 1 to December 31, exports of ordinary industrial sulphuric acid and smelting by-product sulphuric acid are fully suspended, with only electronic-grade high-purity sulphuric acid allowed for limited export after special approval. The core policy objective is to "secure spring planting and stabilize supply," prioritizing China's domestic fertilizer industry.
II. Transportation and Storage: Significant Differences in Sea and Land Conditions
Shipping Time and Economics. Shipping times from major sources to Indonesia: Australia approximately 5 days, India approximately 7-8 days, Japan and South Korea approximately 9 days, China approximately 10 days. Australia has a shorter distance and less quality degradation in transit. Price differences are relatively small; based on 2025 customs data, the CIF price from China to Indonesia was approximately $103/mt, while from Australia it was approximately $106/mt.
The fundamental constraint on transport radius lies in land transportation. On one hand, sulphuric acid is highly hygroscopic—even stored in sealed tanks, prolonged transportation still causes concentration to decline; on the other hand, land transport has small unit capacity, and long-distance transport costs are not economical. Therefore, ports prohibit large-scale storage of sulphuric acid tanks, and the acid must be consumed quickly after arrival, requiring enterprises to configure their own acid storage tanks as buffers.
Regarding enterprise supporting facilities, acid storage tank investment and port area scheduling coordination are the actual bottlenecks for imported sulphuric acid. Additionally, Indonesia's permit management for sulphuric acid imports has a long history—it was included in hazardous chemical management in 2001, tightened in 2013, and supplementary regulations were issued in 2025 to further restrict it. The permit threshold itself has already suppressed sulphuric acid imports to a certain extent.
III. Australia: Shortest Shipping Radius but Extremely Limited Supply
Australia has superior overall conditions: shipping takes only about 5 days, the CIF price is basically flat with China's, and Sun Metals has dedicated export storage tanks and loading facilities at the Port of Townsville. On the surface, it appears to be the most ideal alternative source.
However, Australia's actual sulphuric acid supply capacity is severely constrained. In terms of smelting acid, according to SMM survey, Australia's total domestic sulphuric acid capacity is approximately 2.9 million mt/year, mainly from: BHP Kalgoorlie nickel smelter (approximately 300,000 mt/year), Olympic Dam copper smelter (approximately 500,000 mt/year), Sun Metals zinc smelter (approximately 400,000 mt/year), Nyrstar Hobart zinc smelter and Port Pirie lead smelter combined approximately 500,000 mt/year, Glencore Mount Isa copper smelter's Incitec Pivot sulphuric acid plant (800,000 mt/year), and approximately 400,000 mt/year of sulphur burning capacity.
Most critically, the above capacity is shrinking significantly:Mount Isa copper mine has closed, with the smelter and refinery surviving short-term under government bailout; BHP Kalgoorlie nickel smelter suspended operations from October 2024.
Meanwhile, according to USGS data, Australia's annual sulphur production is at the 1 million mt level, requiring large sulphur imports to maintain sulphuric acid production, and sulphur supply itself is also affected by the Middle East situation.WITS data showed that in 2024, Australia exported 17,800 mt of sulphuric acid but imported 87,800 mt of sulphuric acid and 542,000 mt of sulphur.Under the dual constraints of shrinking smelting capacity and insufficient sulphur self-supply, Australia's actual sulphuric acid volume available for export to Indonesia is extremely limited, not enough to fill the gap caused by China's ban.
IV. Other Asia-Pacific Sources: Each with Its Own Shortcomings
South Korea and Japanwere once important supply sources for Indonesia. In 2025, Indonesia imported 172,000 mt and 106,000 mt from South Korea and Japan respectively, but these declined sharply by 40% and 65% YoY, mainly due to lower TC/RC squeezing smelter profits and declining operating rates. South Korea's total sulphuric acid exports in Q1 2025 were approximately 583,400 mt, down 5% YoY, with major export destinations being Chile, India, Thailand, and Indonesia—not exclusively supplying Indonesia. Japan's supply scale is smaller with limited export elasticity. Combined exports from Japan and South Korea to Indonesia were approximately 200,000-300,000 mt/year, with extremely limited incremental potential.
Indiaside, multiple sulphuric acid plants are expanding, but the incremental volume is mainly used to meet its own fertilizer industry demand and reduce import dependence. India is the world's third-largest sulphuric acid importer, importing approximately 2 million mt annually, and export is not a strategic priority. India's incremental exports to Indonesia are estimated at no more than 50,000-100,000 mt/year.
Taiwan and the Philippinesside, combined exports to Indonesia are less than 50,000 mt/year. Taiwan's sulphuric acid is primarily electronic-grade, serving the semiconductor industry, and is not large-scale metallurgical-grade sulphuric acid for export. Other sources (South Africa, Middle East, etc.) face issues of excessive shipping distances or limited capacity, and are practically negligible.
V. Supply-Demand Gap Quantification and Comprehensive Conclusion
Quantitative Estimation. In 2025, Indonesia's total sulphuric acid imports were approximately 1.08 million mt. Of this, the MHP industry's actual consumption of imported sulphuric acid was approximately 220,000 mt, of which approximately 180,000 mt came from China.
Based on historical highs, the combined upper limit of replaceable volume from all sources is approximately 400,000-600,000 mt/year (Japan and South Korea 200,000-300,000 mt, India 50,000-100,000 mt, Taiwan and the Philippines 30,000-50,000 mt, Australia's theoretical potential after deducting shutdown factors approximately 100,000-200,000 mt). However, most sources, due to their own capacity contraction, priority in securing domestic demand, or differences in export positioning, can actually replace only 50%-70% of the upper limit, approximately 200,000-400,000 mt/year, which barely approaches the 300,000 mt gap but cannot achieve stable substitution.
The core constraint is: globally, sulphuric acid mainly comes from non-ferrous metal smelting by-products, and production growth is limited by non-ferrous metal capacity expansion; Australian smelters have largely shut down, and Japan and South Korea's operating rates remain sluggish, reflecting the structural characteristic of "sulphuric acid being dependent on the primary smelting business." While maritime transport is feasible, the globally available "surplus" sulphuric acid is very limited.
Conclusion
After China officially suspended sulphuric acid exports, Indonesia can technically import sulphuric acid from Australia, Japan and South Korea, India, and other sources, but globally available alternative sources are unable to stably fill the gap over the long term. Imported sulphuric acid can serve as a short-term buffer but cannot fundamentally resolve the sulphur supply constraint. More viable long-term solutions remain: diversifying sulphur import sources, accelerating the construction of Indonesia's domestic copper mine smelting by-product sulphuric acid projects, and advancing sulphur recovery process optimization.
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