High Prices Suppress Demand, Shanghai Spot Copper Discounts Under Pressure and Widening [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM News, May 19:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract were quoted at discounts of 100-20 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 60 yuan/mt. During the morning session, the SHFE copper 2606 contract showed a pattern of retreating after a rapid rise followed by a sharp decline. The opening price was 104,650 yuan/mt. After opening, prices edged up to 104,850 yuan/mt before pulling back to 104,550 yuan/mt. Prices then surged again, touching a high of 104,940 yuan/mt, before rapidly pulling back to 104,100 yuan/mt. Prices continued to decline, probing a low of 103,870 yuan/mt, and traded in the range of 103,870-104,000 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 103,940 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 60-10 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2606 contract ranged from a loss of 340 yuan/mt to a loss of 280 yuan/mt.

Intraday, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.75, up 0.03 MoM, and the purchasing sentiment was 2.69, up 0.02 MoM. Historical data can be accessed via the database. At the start of the morning session, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at discounts of 100-50 yuan/mt, with SPCC-ILO, Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC quoted at discounts of 80-50 yuan/mt, and Tiefeng, Jinfeng, Dajiang HS, and Jinchuan ISA Yongchang quoted at discounts of 100-70 yuan/mt. High-quality copper Jintun large slabs were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt. In the second session, suppliers further lowered prices. Peruvian large slabs were traded at a discount of 70 yuan/mt. ONSAN, Jinchuan ISA Yongchang, and Xikuang were traded at discounts of 110-100 yuan/mt. High-quality copper was scarce, so quotes remained firm at discounts of 40-20 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper was traded at discounts of 200-180 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices retreated after a rapid rise intraday, but absolute prices remain at elevated levels, continuing to suppress spot premiums. Suppliers further lowered quotes in the second session, and Shanghai spot copper premiums continued to widen. Downstream buyers maintained only just-in-time procurement with limited willingness to chase higher prices. Some suppliers had invoice supplementation needs and made purchases in the market, providing some support to spot discounts. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.