Supply-Side Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined, Lead Prices Generally in the Doldrums [SMM Lead Morning Brief]

SMM May 18 update:

Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2026 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,570 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 16,405 yuan/mt. From mid-session to the close, prices rebounded slightly, ultimately closing at 16,440 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%.

Last Friday, LME lead opened at $2,013.5/mt, briefly edging up to $2,014/mt before entering a downward fluctuation, hitting a low of $1,973/mt. Near the close, market sentiment recovered somewhat, and LME lead prices edged up, ultimately closing at $1,984/mt, down $28/mt or 1.39%.

Last week, primary lead production edged up, while secondary lead smelters saw both short-term production cuts/shutdowns and resumptions coexisting. On imported lead, the import window closed, and the inflow of imported lead into China decreased. The supply side overall presented an intertwined pattern of bullish and bearish factors. The battery consumption off-season continued in May, with weak end-use demand providing limited support for lead prices. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.