Argentina Approved New Mining Projects, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.5.15 Friday
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $14,043/mt, initially touching a high of $14,077/mt before the price center gradually shifted lower to probe $13,917.5/mt. It then experienced wild swings before finally closing at $13,986/mt, down 0.7%, with trading volume at 22,000 lots and open interest at 277,000 lots, an increase of 2,465 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Overnight the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 107,250 yuan/mt, initially probing a high of 107,320 yuan/mt before the price center quickly shifted lower to touch 106,690 yuan/mt. It then rose amid wild swings to finally close at 107,024 yuan/mt, down 0.35%, with trading volume at 39,000 lots and open interest at 184,000 lots, a decrease of 4,131 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) Argentina's Minister of Economy Luis Caputo posted on social media that the Argentine government approved two new mining projects on Thursday to participate in the country's Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI). Caputo stated that the approved projects included the San Jorge copper mine project in Mendoza Province (with an investment of $891 million) and the Cauchari Olaroz lithium mine expansion project in Jujuy Province (with an investment of $1.2 billion), which will create more than 8,000 new direct and indirect jobs.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On May 15, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2605 contract were quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 107,020-107,740 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper 2605 opened lower with a gap and then moved sideways before continuing to decline. The opening price was 108,630 yuan/mt. After the gap-down opening, prices continued to fall, probing down to 107,030 yuan/mt. Prices then fluctuated between 107,030 yuan/mt and 107,800 yuan/mt before copper prices continued to decline, probing a low of 106,620 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 108,440 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts ranged from Contango 70 yuan/mt to Backwardation 60 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the front-month 2605 contract ranged from a loss of 440 yuan/mt to a loss of 260 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, today is the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2605 contract. According to the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract. From the current market structure, intraday SHFE copper prices quickly probed lower with the price spread between futures contracts ranging from Contango 70 yuan/mt to Backwardation 60 yuan/mt. End-user procurement orders saw a slight increase in volume, but not significantly. According to SMM, some downstream enterprises had orders placed around 104,000 yuan/mt, and downstream procurement sentiment remained relatively subdued, with high copper prices continuing to suppress current consumption demand. However, due to delivery logic providing a floor, spot discounts received certain support, and the downside space for premiums was limited. Going forward, attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. After delivery is completed, the market will engage in a new round of pricing dynamics around the 2606 contract.
(2) Guangdong: On May 15, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 270 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 107,770 yuan/mt, down 975 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,665 yuan/mt, down 975 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, copper prices pulled back but downstream restocking remained inactive, suppliers showed no willingness to cut prices, and market trading was sluggish.
(3) Imported copper: On May 15, the average warrant price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $70/mt (price range $66-74/mt); the average B/L price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $67/mt (price range $65-71/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose $2/mt from the previous trading day to $38/mt (price range $36-44/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late May.
(4) Secondary copper: On May 15, the futures closing price at 11:30 was 106,950 yuan/mt, down 1,490 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums were -50 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On May 15, copper scrap prices decreased by 700 yuan/mt MoM; the copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.74, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.14. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,600 yuan/mt, down 783 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,900 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices pulled back, many copper scrap traders were eager to sell, while downstream secondary copper rod enterprises were willing to purchase in small volumes, and the copper scrap market trading recovered slightly.
Prices: On the macro front, US April retail sales edged up driven by inflation, and import prices posted the largest increase in nearly two years. The US Fed considered inflation still the biggest risk, but the economy showed resilience. Monetary policy appeared slightly restrictive, with no justification for either a rate hike or an interest rate cut for now, and Miran would resign around the time Warsh takes office. Domestically, Xi Jinping held talks with Trump, with both sides expressing commitment to jointly guiding China-US relations and promoting cooperation. Combined with the sharp rise in US April PPI data, the positive China-US sentiment was priced in, and copper prices pulled back from highs under pressure. Fundamentals side, supply was tight in spot circulation due to delivery-related dynamics; demand side, although copper prices pulled back somewhat, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong and procurement remained subdued. Inventory side, as of May 14 (Thursday), SMM copper inventories in major regions across China stood at 243,300 mt, up slightly by 700 mt WoW. Overall, copper prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]