Copper Inventories Across Three Regions Pull Back Simultaneously, National Copper Social Inventory Continues to Decline [SMM Weekly Data]

SMM May 11 News:

Data Brief: As of Monday, May 11, SMM copper inventories across major regions nationwide decreased by 10,300 mt WoW from the post-holiday level to 242,600 mt, with total inventory up 119,500 mt compared to the same period last year (123,100 mt).

Specifically, arrivals of imported copper cathode rod in Shanghai rebounded somewhat, but domestic supply remained tight. Combined with steady release of downstream rigid demand, regional inventory continued to destock. In Jiangsu, domestic arrivals remained stable, warehouse withdrawals maintained a normal pace, and inventory continued to pull back. In Guangdong, the pace of warehouse inflows and withdrawals was balanced, with limited overall inventory fluctuations.

Market outlook: on the supply side, short-term incremental import arrivals are expected to remain limited, domestic supply continues to be insufficient, and the overall tight supply pattern is unlikely to change in the near term. Demand side, as the copper price center steadily shifts upward, downstream enterprises show weak willingness to stockpile, mostly restocking on an as-needed basis. Surveys indicate that the copper cathode rod operating rate is expected to recover to 63.65% this week, up 3.07 percentage points WoW. Overall supply and demand performance suggests that the current copper market is characterized by tight supply and demand recovering to normal levels. Social inventory is expected to continue destocking in the near term.