Futures:
Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,974/mt, fluctuated downward during the Asian session to a low of $1,958/mt. As tight supply of lead ingots in the Southeast Asian market persisted, providing strong support for lead prices, it rebounded during the European session, touching a high of $1,979/mt before closing at $1,977.5/mt, down 0.99%.
Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened high at 16,740 yuan/mt. Due to weak spot market consumption, lead prices were in the doldrums, hitting a low of 16,665 yuan/mt before closing at 16,705 yuan/mt, down 0.03%, forming a small bearish candlestick with no shadows.
On the macro front:
US data — April non-farm payrolls recorded 115,000 new jobs, far exceeding the expectation of 62,000, with the previous value revised up from 178,000 to 185,000, and the unemployment rate held steady; non-farm payroll additions for the prior two months were revised down by a combined 16,000. May consumer confidence hit a record low, and one-year inflation expectations unexpectedly cooled. US Fed — Milan: still inclined toward earlier interest rate cuts; Powell should only briefly remain as a governor after stepping down as chair. He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will lead a delegation to South Korea on May 12–13 for economic and trade consultations with the US side. CAAM: online rumors that "NEV manufacturers were summoned for talks and investigated due to battery lock issues" are false information. In the first four months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 16.23 trillion yuan, up 14.9% YoY, with foreign trade maintaining a strong growth momentum.
:
SHFE lead continued to fluctuate downward, and as delivery approached, some suppliers were inclined to ship to delivery warehouses, resulting in limited spot quotations in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market. Cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were ample, and suppliers actively made shipments, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt above SMM #1 lead, ex-works. Secondary lead side, circulating cargoes in the market were limited, and smelters held prices firm while making shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at parity with SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, with some purchasing on dips, but more adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and spot order market transactions were sluggish.
Inventory: On May 8, LME lead inventory decreased by 400 mt to 265,775 mt; SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 8,000 mt WoW.
Today's lead price forecast:
Consumption side, the lead-acid battery market off-season trend persists, but as the holiday factor dissipates, downstream enterprises are expected to resume purchasing as needed. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises cut production, and regional lead ingot supply is tight, while primary lead production is stable with a slight increase, with relatively ample supply. This week, attention should be paid to the impact of delivery on circulating cargoes. Lead prices are expected to have difficulty being quoted at significant discounts (against SMM #1 lead).
Data Source Statement: All data other than publicly available information is SMM processed data based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
![Lead Prices Fell in Both Overnight and Prompt Markets, Support for Ex-China Lead Prices Remains [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/xVUpr20251217171722.jpg)
