Mine-Side Disruptions Drove Copper Prices Higher, SHFE Copper BC Copper Price Spread Inversion Widened Further [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2606 opened at 91,630 yuan/mt, moved sideways in early trading, then the copper price center gradually shifted lower. During the day session, it opened lower with a gap, probing down to 90,950 yuan/mt, then moved sideways again before the copper price center rapidly surged to a high of 93,070 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 92,850 yuan/mt, up 1.55%. Open interest stood at 9,836 lots, an increase of 314 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume reached 9,115 lots, indicating bulls adding positions. Macro perspective, the US and Iran engaged in armed conflict, but this did not break the existing ceasefire framework. Iran has not yet responded to the US proposal, and the market remained on the sidelines, awaiting clearer signals from subsequent negotiations. Meanwhile, news emerged that production resumptions at the Grasberg mine would be delayed by one year, intensifying market concerns over tighter forward supply and further boosting copper prices to rise. Fundamentals side, supply side saw limited domestic arrivals, delayed imports, and a slight inventory increase but overall tightness. Demand side, with copper prices continuing to fluctuate at highs, downstream enterprises maintained a cautious procurement stance, and the market was primarily driven by rigid restocking demand.

The SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 104,550 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2606 contract at 92,850 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 104,920 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2606 contract and BC copper was -370, maintaining an inversion that continued to widen compared to the previous day.