China's manganese product market has completely moved away from the pattern of rising and falling in tandem, with severe divergence across categories: EMM and Mn3O4 weakened and pulled back, battery-grade manganese sulphate remained resilient and firm with tight spot supply, EMD stayed stable and moved sideways, LMO struggled to catch up passively, and the industry has officially entered a structural market with clear differentiation between strong and weak segments, with distinct investment and stockpiling opportunities hidden beneath the divergence.

EMM shifted from stable to weak this week, with prices entering a pullback channel.On the supply side, operating rates remained stable, while manganese ore and sulphuric acid raw material prices stalled and consolidated, causing costs to lose upward support momentum and significantly weakening producers' confidence to hold prices firm. The demand side was the core drag, as downstream steel mills and new energy sectors saw overall mediocre procurement, with low acceptance of high prices, a strong desire to bargain down prices, and a notably slower procurement pace. Compounded by the market's tendency to rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn, downstream buyers only made just-in-time procurement in small quantities, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. In the short term, EMM's weak pattern is unlikely to change, and prices still have downside room.

In contrast, battery-grade manganese sulphate bucked the trend with an independent and resilient performance, moving sideways overall with solid fundamental support.Although demand in April pulled back slightly MoM, the just-in-time procurement base remained stable, with transactions highly concentrated in long-term contracts that fully covered routine procurement, while spot order trading was mediocre. On the supply side, constrained by environmental protection-related controls, tight sulphuric acid resources, and raw material procurement pace limitations, spot circulation remained persistently tight, with producers' inventory generally at low levels, some even below safety thresholds, making the tight spot supply pattern difficult to ease in the short term.

The cost side provided even stronger support: manganese ore quotes remained firm, sulphur and sulphuric acid prices stayed high, and combined with elevated freight costs, production costs were rigidly difficult to reduce, leaving producers no room for price concessions. As new orders from major downstream manufacturers in May are progressively placed, manganese sulphate has ample potential for price increases going forward, with its structural advantage becoming prominent.

Battery-grade Mn3O4 weakened in tandem, with the market cooling and prices edging down.On the supply side, operating rates remained stable with orderly long-term contract fulfillment, and inventory was generally manageable; however, the downstream LMO industry only maintained just-in-time procurement, with low willingness for large-scale restocking and insufficient inquiry and transaction activity. Additionally, with upstream EMM prices pulling back, cost support loosened, and producers increasingly offered concessions, with the short-term market expected to continue its weak trend.

EMD moved relatively independently, staying stable overall with minimal fluctuations.Supply and demand remained balanced on both sides, with enterprises operating normally and inventory turnover stable. Downstream primary battery and LMO just-in-time procurement remained steady, with no concentrated stockpiling or volume reduction actions. Producers had low willingness to adjust prices, and the market is expected to continue moving sideways in the short term.

Downstream LMO showed a passive follow-the-rise pattern, with quotes edging up driven by strengthening lithium carbonate, but price transmission lacked momentum and upside momentum remained weak. Cost-side pressure forced manufacturers to hold prices firm and raise quotes, but end-user battery enterprises saw sluggish demand, mostly consuming their own inventory, with strong wait-and-see sentiment, insisting on just-in-time procurement and refusing to stockpile in advance. Intense bargaining between upstream and downstream persisted, with market transactions dominated by small just-in-time orders. Combined with stable industry operating rates and ample supply, upward price momentum was further suppressed, making it difficult to sustain an independent rally.

Future market focus centered on manganese ore, sulphur, and sulphuric acid raw material trends, as well as downstream May new energy orders and steel mill restocking pace. The era of broad-based rallies ended, and structural trends became the mainstream.