Holiday Approaching, Demand Mediocre, Lead Prices Under Overall Pressure [SMM Lead Morning Brief]

SMM April 30:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session to a high of $1,963/mt, then moved sideways between $1,955.5-1,961.5/mt during the European session, before shifting to fluctuate downward, eventually closing low at $1,945/mt, down 0.33%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Futures initially dipped briefly before rebounding slightly, but encountered resistance above. The overall trend then shifted to fluctuate downward, touching a low of 16,645 yuan/mt near the session end, finally closing at 16,650 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt or 0.57%; open interest stood at 63,800 lots, down 1,254 lots from the previous trading day.

Consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, battery manufacturers' periodic restocking largely concluded last week, with downstream just-in-time procurement follow-through lacking momentum and overall demand remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts or shutdowns, with spot cargo continuing to tighten; meanwhile, ex-China lead ingot destocking continued, and domestic primary lead social inventory also pulled back slightly. Currently, the lead market presents a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.