Tin Market Maintained Weak Supply-Demand Pattern, Tin Prices Expected to Continue Moving Sideways in a Fluctuating Trend [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, April 20, 2026

On the international macro perspective, global semiconductor demand maintained a robust momentum. South Korea's chip exports in Q1 surged significantly YoY, and Japan's exports of electronic parts and non-ferrous metals also performed strongly, providing certain support for tin's forward consumption. However, China-EU economic and trade relations faced uncertainties brought by a series of protectionist measures from the EU. Although both sides signaled a willingness to resolve differences over the EV case through dialogue, trade friction risks persisted. Coupled with the disruption of US tariff policies on global supply chains, overall macro sentiment leaned toward caution, constraining metal prices.

The domestic tin market continued a pattern of weakness in both supply and demand this week. Supply side, smelters primarily focused on stable production, and ore raw material supply had not yet shown significant tightening, with overall output remaining steady.

Demand side, purchasing continued to be suppressed by high prices. Downstream solder and end-user enterprises maintained a cautious procurement mindset, generally limiting purchases to rigid-demand restocking. Wait-and-see sentiment was strong, the spot market inquiry atmosphere was subdued, actual transactions were limited, and social inventory destocking was slow. This week, the most-traded SHFE tin contract repeatedly seesawed around the 390,000 yuan/mt level, with futures consolidating at highs. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts fell into a stalemate, as fundamentals lacked a clear directional driver, and most market participants maintained a wait-and-see attitude.

Overall, current tin prices are at absolute highs, with insufficient downstream acceptance, while the supply side has seen no major changes for now. Tin prices are expected to continue a fluctuating trend of moving sideways this week. If no better-than-expected positive developments emerge on the macro front, prices may face certain pullback and consolidation pressure. Investors are advised to maintain a range-trading mindset, closely monitor downstream restocking inflection points, tin ore supply disruptions in and outside China, and trade policy changes, control positions, operate cautiously, and avoid chasing highs.