Crude Oil Surged Over 14% Weekly, Metals Rose Broadly, SHFE Nickel and Alumina Gained Over 2%, Gold and Silver Ended Weekly Winning Streaks [Overnight Market]

SMM April 25 News:

Metals market:

As of the overnight close, base metals in both domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with only LME copper, LME aluminum, SHFE copper, and SHFE aluminum declining together. SHFE aluminum fell 0.38%, LME aluminum fell 0.19%, LME copper fell 0.16%, and SHFE copper fell 0.03%. The remaining metals all rose, with SHFE nickel leading the gains at 2.68%, LME nickel up 1.86%, and the rest rising less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 2.48%, while the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.43%.

Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose, with iron ore being the only decliner, falling 0.19%. Stainless steel rose 2.31%, while the remaining metals fluctuated slightly. In coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.63% and coke rose 0.46%.

Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 0.03% overnight but fell 3.16% on the week, ending a three-week winning streak. COMEX silver rose 0.24% but fell 7.52% on the week, ending a four-week winning streak. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.26% but fell 2.24% on the week, while SHFE silver rose 0.28% but fell 5.86% on the week.

Overnight closing prices as of 8:24 AM, April 25:

Macro Front

China:

[State Council Executive Meeting: Approved the "Regulations on the Procedures for the Formulation of Administrative Regulations (Revised Draft)"]Premier Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting. The meeting noted that the scientific formulation of administrative regulations is a fundamental task in comprehensively governing the country according to law. Efforts should be made to earnestly implement the "Regulations on the Procedures for the Formulation of Administrative Regulations," adhere to scientific, democratic, and law-based legislation, adapt to changes in economic and social development, promptly conduct legislative research, and carry out work on project applications, assessment and verification, drafting, and legislative review. Supporting regulations should be improved and refined, and legislative quality and efficiency should be continuously enhanced to provide necessary rule-of-law safeguards for reform and development. (Jin10 Data APP)

To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on April 27, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 400 billion yuan MLF operation with a 1-year tenor through fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning bid methods.

US dollar:

As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 98.53, but rose 0.32% on the week, rebounding after three consecutive weekly declines. According to ABC, the US Department of Justice was expected to drop the criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell as early as April 24. Washington, D.C. prosecutor Pirro stated that she was terminating the (criminal) investigation into the renovation costs of the Fed building but requested the Fed Inspector General to review the Fed's costs. Pirro said she would not hesitate to reopen the investigation into Powell if necessary. (Wallstreetcn)

White House spokesperson Kush Desai issued a statement on X: "The White House continues to believe, as it has, that the Senate will swiftly confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman." He added that regarding the cost overruns on the Fed building renovation project, the Fed Inspector General's office "has stronger authority and is therefore best suited to thoroughly investigate this matter." (Wallstreetcn)

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would not run for public office after completing his current role, but also said he would not rule out accepting an offer to serve as Fed Chairman in the future. Regarding running for president or any other elected office, Bessent said: "I would take that option off the table... I'm going to be the Colin Powell of this administration." On potentially serving as Fed Chairman in the future, he said: "I wouldn't say no." He explained: "It doesn't require an election. You can shape the economy, and it's an institution." (Wallstreetcn)

According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 0.5%, with a 99.5% probability of holding rates unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 5.1%, with a 94.4% probability of holding rates unchanged and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike.

On the macro front:

Next week from China, data to be released include China's year-to-date industrial profits of large-scale enterprises for March (YoY), China's industrial profits of large-scale enterprises for March (YoY), China's official manufacturing PMI for April, and China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI for April. From the US, data to be released include the US Fed interest rate decision as of April 29, the US April Dallas Fed business activity index, the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending April 11, the US February FHFA house price index (MoM), the US February S&P/CS 20-city non-seasonally adjusted home price index (YoY), the US April Conference Board consumer confidence index, the US April Richmond Fed manufacturing index, the US March annualized housing starts, the US March durable goods orders (MoM), the US March building permits, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, the US March core PCE price index (YoY), the US March personal spending (MoM), the US Q1 employment cost index (QoQ), the US Q1 real GDP annualized (QoQ, preliminary), the US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure (QoQ, preliminary), the US Q1 core PCE price index annualized (QoQ, preliminary), the US March core PCE price index (MoM), the US April Chicago PMI, the US March Conference Board leading indicators (MoM), the US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final), and the US April ISM manufacturing PMI. From the eurozone, data to be released include the eurozone April industrial confidence index, the eurozone April economic sentiment index, the eurozone April CPI (YoY, preliminary), the eurozone April CPI (MoM, preliminary), the eurozone Q1 GDP (YoY, preliminary), the eurozone March unemployment rate, the eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of April 30, and the eurozone ECB main refinancing rate as of April 30. From Germany, data to be released include the Germany May GfK consumer confidence index, the Germany April CPI (MoM, preliminary), the Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, the Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, and the Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP (YoY, preliminary). From the UK, data to be released include the UK April CBI retail sales balance, the UK central bank interest rate decision as of April 30, the UK April Nationwide house price index (MoM), the UK April manufacturing PMI (final), and the UK March central bank mortgage approvals. From Switzerland, data to be released include the Switzerland April ZEW investor confidence index, the Switzerland April KOF leading economic indicator, and the Switzerland March real retail sales (YoY). From Japan, data to be released include Japan's March unemployment rate and the Bank of Japan target rate as of April 28. Also to be released are France's Q1 GDP (YoY, preliminary), France's April CPI (MoM, preliminary), Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI (YoY), Canada's central bank interest rate decision as of April 29, and Canada's February GDP (MoM).

On April 27, 600 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 500 million yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations will mature in China. On April 30 at 2:00 AM, the US Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and outlook report. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report, and Bank of England Governor Bailey will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Crude oil:

As of the overnight close, oil prices in the two markets showed mixed performance, with WTI falling 1.01% and Brent rising 0.77%. On a weekly basis, WTI surged 14.88% and Brent surged 17.15%. The sharp weekly gains in crude oil were mainly driven by market concerns over supply disruptions. At the same time, expectations that the US and Iran may restart peace negotiations provided the possibility of easing tight supply.

The Trump administration extended the Jones Act-related shipping waiver by 90 days, which was designed to facilitate the transportation of oil, fuel, and fertilizer within the US. The decision extended the existing waiver, originally set to expire on May 17, by approximately three months, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to transport cargo between US ports until mid-August. Normally, under the 1920 Jones Act, goods transported by water between US domestic ports must use US-flagged, US-built, and US-owned vessels. Trump's waiver temporarily lifted these restrictions for coal, crude oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas, natural gas condensates, fertilizer, and other energy derivatives. (Jin10 Data APP)

Iran continued loading millions of barrels of oil onto supertankers, although this activity will only become increasingly difficult if the US continues to block Tehran's shipping. Satellite images taken on Monday showed a giant crude oil carrier with a capacity of approximately 2 million barrels docked at Kharg Island's terminal. Images taken the previous Saturday showed no vessels docked at Kharg Island at that time. With no evidence that significant volumes of oil have bypassed the US blockade, Iran was likely simply loading crude onto available vessels in the region. The US stated that its maritime barrier in the Sea of Oman had blocked nearly 30 Iranian vessels from passing through, preventing Iranian crude from reaching clients. As the Trump administration seeks to cut Iran's vital oil revenues, market observers are looking for evidence of how long Tehran can sustain its oil production. (Jin10 Data APP)

Saudi Arabia significantly increased crude oil exports through its Red Sea terminal but has not yet stabilized flows through this alternative route at target levels. Data showed that during the first three weeks of April, daily average crude shipments from Yanbu port to overseas markets were approximately 4 million barrels, roughly five times the level before the Iran conflict erupted, but still only about 80% of Riyadh's target. After Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz in late February, the oil market has been closely monitoring oil shipments from Saudi Arabia's west coast terminal. Yanbu port is currently the largest single alternative to the strait blockade for the oil industry. The east-west pipeline can transport 7 million barrels per day of crude from oil fields near Saudi Arabia's Persian Gulf coast to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, of which approximately 2 million barrels are used domestically. (Jin10 Data APP)

A Dallas Fed survey showed that as the ongoing conflict involving Iran disrupts global supply and pushes up crude oil and fuel prices, US oil executives expect domestic production to rise. The survey collected data from 120 oil and natural gas companies between April 15-20, including 78 exploration and production companies and 42 oilfield services companies. The survey showed that 43% of respondents expected US crude oil production to increase by up to 250,000 barrels per day this year due to the Iran war. This expectation differs from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast, which estimated US crude oil production would decrease by 70,000 barrels in 2026. About two-thirds of respondents believed that at least 90% of currently shut-in Persian Gulf crude oil would eventually return to the market. When asked when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would return to normal levels, 20% of respondents said next month, 39% said August, and the rest said November or later. Most executives expected transportation costs in the Persian Gulf region to rise after the conflict ends, with more than one-third indicating costs would increase by $2-4 per barrel. (Jin10 Data APP)