Futures-Spot Resonance Boosted Raw Material Prices, Stainless Steel Smelting Profits Remained Robust [SMM Analysis]

Published: Apr 24, 2026 16:45

Save

This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs rose in tandem, while smelting profits at stainless steel mills remained basically stable. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 1.79% this week; calculated on inventory raw material costs, the profit margin stood at 2.54%.

Nickel raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Stimulated by news related to Indonesian nickel mines, SHFE nickel and SS futures rose in tandem, driving up high-grade NPI prices. Although downstream stainless steel mills still showed a tendency to push for lower prices, stainless steel mill profits have recovered somewhat, and coupled with the cost pressure of high-grade NPI itself, the upward trend in prices may continue. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose 7 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,097 yuan/nickel unit.

Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week. The strengthening of SS futures drove up finished product prices, while the continued fermentation of news on Indonesian nickel mine production halts boosted market sentiment, pushing high-grade NPI prices higher, with stainless steel scrap rising in tandem due to the linkage effect. Supporting factors are clear; although its economic advantage over NPI has narrowed, it remains competitive, and steel mills have strong purchase willingness; the easing of tax invoice shortages has also improved the trading environment. The market presents a pattern of "futures-spot linkage and demand support" with no obvious bearish factors for now, and stainless steel scrap prices are expected to hold up well in the short term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in the Shanghai region rose by 50 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at around 10,400 yuan/mt.

Chromium raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained broadly stable this week. During the week, TISCO took the lead in announcing its May steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome, up 100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM, which boosted confidence in the ferrochrome market and eased the downward trend in retail quotations. However, as May tender prices from other mainstream stainless steel mills have yet to be finalised, the market remains uncertain about whether follow-up price increases will materialise, and the stable trend in short-term high-carbon ferrochrome prices is unlikely to change. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia were stable WoW, closing at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

1 hour ago

Ferrous Metals May Consolidate at Highs in the Short Term [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report]

This week, ferrous metals continued their rebound trend, with finished products outperforming raw materials. Early in the week, the rally was primarily driven by raw materials, as uncertainty over the Middle East situation combined with market rumors of restricted Mongolian coal shipments boosted the coal sector, with other ferrous metals following suit. Mid-week, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Achieving Higher-Level and Higher-Quality Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction," which covered the steel industry, strengthening market expectations for supply-side reform. In the latter half of the week, data on the five major steel products were released, showing increases in both supply and demand along with inventory drawdowns, with finished products rallying more strongly than raw materials. Spot market side, as futures rose consecutively, end-user purchasing enthusiasm increased somewhat, the spot-futures price spread narrowed mid-week, and there was bargain-hunting activity in spot cargo...

1 hour ago

[SMM Analysis] EMM: Rigid Cost Support Highlighted, Multiple Bearish Factors at Month-End Led to Price Softening

Recently, China's EMM market has exhibited a distinct dual pattern of "strong cost support with loosening at highs," with intensifying supply-demand and cost dynamics in the industry. On one hand, the tight balance in supply and demand for the core raw material manganese ore persisted, compounded by elevated prices of other auxiliary materials, collectively pushing up EMM smelting costs and providing solid floor support for manganese prices. On the other hand, traditional month-end demand weakness and tightening liquidity, coupled with correlated downward movements of linked products along the industry chain, led to a rational pullback in EMM prices that had been consolidating at highs, with market sentiment gradually shifting from firm stability to cautious wait-and-see.

1 hour ago

2 hours ago

[SMM Steel] Hoa Phat targets 38–40% steel pipe market share after new plant launch

[SMM Steel] Hoa Phat Group aims to raise its steel pipe market share to 38–40%, up from around 35% currently, following the commissioning of its Long An plant (400,000 mt/year), lifting total capacity to 1.2 mln mt/year. Q1 2026 pipe sales rose 30% YoY to 241,000 mt, significantly outpacing industry growth (+7%), while market share increased by 5 percentage points YoY. The company plans to focus on large-diameter pipes for infrastructure projects, targeting less competitive segments. Expansion will depend on actual construction demand, while competition is intensifying as peers such as Nam Kim Steel also ramp up capacity.

2 hours ago