"Good Start" Secured! Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Achieved High-Quality Opening in Q1

On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Q1 macro economic data. In Q1, China's GDP grew 5.0% YoY, up 0.5 percentage points from Q4 last year, reaching the upper end of the full-year growth target range of 4.5%–5.0%, achieving a solid start for the economy. Among the data, industrial value added of enterprises above designated size grew 6.1% YoY. Among the three major sectors, mining grew 6% YoY; manufacturing grew 6.4% YoY, with high-tech manufacturing up 12.5% YoY; and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew 4.3% YoY. Among major industries' value added, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing grew 2.5%. In Q1, China's production of ten major non-ferrous metals totaled approximately 20.53 million mt, up 3.6% YoY, including aluminum production of approximately 11.41 million mt, up 3.1% YoY. The non-ferrous metals industry achieved steady growth.

The recently released monthly prosperity index report for the non-ferrous metals industry showed that in March, China's non-ferrous metals industry prosperity index stood at 38, up 2.8 points MoM, displaying a steady upward trend, with the industry overall exhibiting characteristics of stable production, steady investment, and sustained growth in profitability.

Capacity utilization side, in Q1, the capacity utilization rate of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing remained flat YoY and was slightly above the national average for industrial enterprises above designated size. The national capacity utilization rate for industrial enterprises above designated size was 73.6%, down 1.3% from Q4 last year and down 0.5% YoY. Among them, the mining industry's capacity utilization rate was 72.1, down 2.5% YoY; the capacity utilization rate of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing was 77.2%, down 0.3% YoY.

Notably, investment side, in March, investment in China's non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing turned from a 9.2% YoY decline in the previous two months to a 3.7% YoY increase, shifting from negative to positive and achieving a notable rebound.

Market side, as China's macro economy maintained steady progress, the manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory, industrial production grew steadily, and monetary policy remained prudent, providing support for the non-ferrous metals market. Aluminum prices in particular continued to strengthen, supported by costs and demand, with SHFE aluminum futures reaching a high of 25,965 yuan/mt. In addition, gold, cobalt, and lithium prices saw remarkable rebounds. Overall, amid a macro environment of stable supply and growing demand, the non-ferrous metals industry exhibited a steady and positive development trend.

Profitability side, driven by the combined effects of high-level price fluctuations in major metal varieties and steady growth in market demand, industry profitability continued the steady growth momentum from the end of last year. In January–February, overall industry profitability improved significantly, with industrial enterprises above designated size achieving revenue of 1,713.17 billion yuan, up 28.3% YoY, and total profits of 123.16 billion yuan, up 133.5% YoY, with profitability steadily strengthening.

Driven by demand growth and industrial structure optimization, in Q1, the non-ferrous metals sector on A-shares delivered significant performance growth, with publicly listed firms in the non-ferrous industry generally reporting substantial profit increases. As of now, among non-ferrous metals companies on A-shares that have disclosed Q1 earnings forecasts, over 90% reported positive results, with nearly half posting YoY net profit growth exceeding 100%. Leading enterprises delivered particularly impressive results. Aluminum Corporation of China is expected to achieve Q1 net profit of approximately 5.302–5.585 billion yuan, up 50%–58% YoY, setting a record high for the same period. Yunnan Copper, benefiting from rising copper prices and the recovery of smelting TC, reported a Q1 earnings increase with net profit up approximately 45% YoY. CATL achieved Q1 revenue of 129.131 billion yuan, up 52.45% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 20.738 billion yuan, up 48.52% YoY. Zijin Mining is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of 17–20 billion yuan, up 65%–97% YoY, with both volume and price of its two core products — copper and gold — rising, highlighting the advantages of its global resource deployment. CMOC, driven by rising prices of copper, cobalt, rare earths, and other products, is expected to achieve Q1 net profit of 7.5–9 billion yuan, up 90%–128% YoY. Shenhuo Co., benefiting from rising aluminum prices and declining raw material costs, is expected to achieve Q1 net profit of 2.25 billion yuan, up 217.68% YoY. Huayou Cobalt is expected to achieve Q1 net profit of 2.497 billion yuan, up 99.45% YoY, driven by robust demand for new energy battery materials and rising volumes and prices of nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Boosted by international gold prices hitting record highs, gold stocks saw explosive performance, with Western Gold expected to achieve Q1 net profit of 450–560 million yuan, up over 11 times YoY.

In Q1, with stable supply and better-than-expected demand, the non-ferrous sector was broadly favored. International gold prices broke through $2,400/oz, the average SHFE copper price exceeded 100,000 yuan/mt, and prices of aluminum, tin, tungsten, rare earths, and other metals rose significantly YoY. The supply-demand pattern continued to improve — globally, new mine capacity was limited and ore grade at aging mines declined, keeping supply tight. Demand side, emerging markets such as AI computing power, NEVs, energy storage, and ultra-high voltage saw robust demand, while traditional infrastructure and real estate demand gradually recovered, driving sustained growth in the non-ferrous metals consumer market. Production cost and efficiency improvement side, enterprises advanced industry chain integration, green smelting for cost reduction, and refined management, significantly enhancing profitability.

Notably, in this round of the non-ferrous sector's sharp rise, beyond traditional leading varieties such as copper, aluminum, and gold, minor metals including rare earths, tungsten, and antimony also delivered eye-catching performance. Additionally, the new energy revolution and changes in the geopolitical environment drove significant growth in demand for metals such as lithium and cobalt, boosting demand for strategic materials including non-ferrous metals and steel.

Analysts believe that against the backdrop of intensifying global resource competition and the accelerating development of new energy and the digital economy, the non-ferrous metals industry, as a strategic raw material sector, is expected to see sustained and steady improvement in industry prosperity.

Technological innovation is the core driving force and key pillar for the sustained and stable development of China's non-ferrous metals industry, and a vital engine for driving the industry's transformation toward high-end, intelligent, and green development. Through continuously deepening scientific research and innovation and persistent, solid efforts, China's non-ferrous metals industry has achieved fruitful results in technological innovation.

Recently, a research team at the Institute of Metal Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, successfully developed a "super copper foil" that enables smartphones, computers, and EVs to generate less heat, charge faster, and operate more safely during high-current charging. In daily life, electric current generates heat when passing through resistance — the higher the charging power, the hotter electronic devices become. This phenomenon is caused by the inconspicuous copper foil inside electronic devices. This wafer-thin "copper sheet" serves as both a conduit for electric current and a carrier of heat. However, for a long time, copper foil has faced an insurmountable challenge — high strength means poor conductivity; good conductivity means thermal stability cannot keep up. These three properties form an "impossible triangle," where improving one comes at the expense of the others. The "super copper foil" newly developed by the research team at the Institute of Metal Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, has cracked this "impossible triangle" — maximizing strength, conductivity, and thermal stability simultaneously. First, strength surged. Ordinary industrial copper foil has a tensile strength of approximately 300–600 MPa, while the newly developed "super copper foil" achieves a tensile strength of 900 MPa, roughly twice as strong as conventional copper foil. Second, conductivity remained intact. Despite the significant increase in strength, the "super copper foil" maintains an electrical conductivity of 90% of high-purity copper. Compared with traditional copper alloys of similar strength, the "super copper foil" offers approximately twice the conductivity, truly achieving both strength and conductivity. Furthermore, the "super copper foil" also excels in thermal stability — after being stored for six months under normal conditions, its performance showed no degradation, making it suitable for long-term use in electronic products, batteries, and other applications.

When manufacturing the "super copper foil," the research team added a trace amount of organic additive to the electroplating solution, causing numerous 3nm-sized "micro-locks" to form inside the copper foil. These "micro-locks" act like countless microscopic nails, firmly locking the gaps between copper crystal grains, naturally boosting the foil's strength significantly. These "micro-locks" bond seamlessly with the surrounding copper, so electrons passing through encounter virtually no obstacles, resulting in almost no loss of electrical conductivity. It can be said that copper foil serves as both the "nerves" of electronic devices and the "blood vessels" of the new energy industry. This "super copper foil" is already capable of continuous production under industrial conditions, opening new pathways for upgrading and iterating various devices including smartphones, AI chips, and EVs. The successful breakthrough of this technology holds significant strategic importance for the independent and controllable development of China's electronic information and new energy industries.

Additionally, small-scale technological transformations and on-the-job innovations in production workshops also yielded remarkable results, becoming an important lever for quality and efficiency improvement in Q1. Baiyin Group's smelting system focused on maintaining continuous and stable production, rationally allocating raw material structures and dynamically adjusting process workloads in response to changes in raw materials and market conditions, achieving new highs in product quality while maintaining stable output. Dianzhong Non-ferrous Metals Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Copper, focused on comprehensive utilization of resources, successfully converting sulfur slag into a profit-generating "rich ore," forging a path that achieves both green, low-carbon development and economic benefits. The key technology for collaborative disposal and resource recovery of typical solid waste from copper, lead, and zinc, led by Kunming Institute of Metallurgy Research, won the first prize of the Environmental Technology Progress Award from the China Association of Environmental Protection Industry, thanks to its advanced technical capabilities and significant environmental benefits, providing a practical and feasible technical pathway for the industry's green transformation and making the conversion of solid waste into valuable resources a reality. In the production workshop of Luoyang Copper Processing Co., Ltd., the world's widest copper plate cold and hot rolling mill — the 3500mm copper and copper alloy wide-thick plate cold and hot rolling mill — completed its first trial rolling successfully, marking a major breakthrough for China in the field of high-end copper and copper alloy wide-thick plate rolling equipment.

Spring heralds a new journey, with steady momentum and rising quality. In Q1, China's non-ferrous metals industry advanced steadily with gains in both volume and efficiency, demonstrating operational resilience; publicly listed firms maintained sound operations with continuously improving profitability, building a solid foundation for development with strong performance; innovative achievements in key material breakthroughs, green low-carbon smelting, and digital-intelligent transformation continued to materialize, injecting strong momentum into industrial upgrading and firmly establishing a high-quality start for the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Standing at a new starting point, the entire industry will build on stability, pursue progress to enhance quality, continue to deepen the industry chain, strengthen the innovation chain, and elevate the value chain. In Q2, the industry will seize the momentum and forge ahead, advancing the non-ferrous metals industry toward high-end, intelligent, and green development with more solid steps, and delivering an even more impressive non-ferrous metals report card for achieving stable growth and promoting transformation throughout the year.